China 5 - December 13, 2024
Jack Ma returns, Nvidia investigated, December Politburo meeting, NBA rebounds

THIS WEEK:
The return of Jack Ma, Nvidia antitrust investigation, strong words from December Politburo meeting, Xi seeks satellite party advice, and NBA on the rebound in Macau
1. The Return of Jack Ma
What Happened: Alibaba founder Jack Ma returned to the spotlight when his December 8 speech marking Ant Group’s 20th anniversary was widely reported in Chinese media.
Jack Is Back: After Ant Group canceled its planned stock offering in November 2020, Ma kept a lower profile and lived abroad for extended periods. His absence from public life was commonly interpreted as a reflection of the party-state leadership’s disfavor and distrust toward private entrepreneurs.
Ante Up: Also last week, the organizers of China’s Spring Festival Gala (comparable to the American Super Bowl in terms of popularity) announced that Alibaba had been selected as an exclusive sponsor of the upcoming event — a sign of Beijing’s positive endorsement.
Why It Matters: With China facing significant economic challenges, the party-state leadership is keen to reassure private entrepreneurs that they still have an important role to play in the economy and that there is nothing wrong with making money, provided it aligns with party-state priorities. If Ant Group’s IPO proceeds, potentially in 2025, it could serve as a much-needed boost to business confidence and help ease private entrepreneurs’ concerns about their future in China.
By Jing Qian, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Jing summarizes the critical challenges and opportunities that China faces in the coming year in the preface to the Center for China Analysis’s new report, China 2025: What to Watch.
2. Antitrust Investigation into Nvidia
What Happened: The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) announced an antitrust investigation into Nvidia for violating conditional approval remedies tied to its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox.
The Significance: The timing of the investigation stokes speculation that it is a response to the U.S. export control package passed on December 2. In response to previous export controls, China banned the export of certain rare earth minerals and placed U.S. chip manufacturer Micron under cybersecurity review.
Beyond Retaliation: The investigation may serve as a bargaining chip in China’s ongoing negotiations with the United States over export controls and tariffs. The SAMR may look for evidence of degraded interoperability between Nvidia GPUs and domestic datacenter products, anticompetitive bundling, or pricing practices. Ultimately, the inquiry may serve to extract better terms for Chinese vendors in the datacenter ecosystem.
Why It Matters: Beijing’s decision to target a dominant supplier critical to its artificial intelligence ambitions is an escalation not seen in previous responses to export controls. This is the first time an antitrust investigation has been used as a retaliatory measure.
By Qiheng Chen, Affiliated Researcher on Economy and Technology, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Qiheng argues that “China Will Continue to Develop New Quality Productive Forces” in China 2025: What to Watch.
3. Strong Words from Politburo Meeting and Economic Conference
What Happened: On December 9, the Politburo unveiled plans for fiscal and monetary policies in 2025. Priorities include boosting domestic demand, stabilizing the property and stock markets, and addressing weak consumption. Later in the week, the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) announced specific measures that included raising deficits, expanding treasury issuance, and cutting interest and reserve rates to stimulate demand, steady markets, bolster consumption, and ensure robust and stable growth.
Strong Words: The language from both the Politburo and the CEWC was unusually forceful, with fiscal policy described as “more active” for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and monetary policy as “moderately loose,” a term not used since the 2008 financial crisis. This shift in tone from the September Politburo meeting suggests growing concern within the party leadership.
Time Is Short: Beijing’s patchy record of executing previously announced stimulus measures raises doubts about its ability to deliver meaningful reforms, and the economy faces persistent structural challenges — overcapacity, a struggling housing market, weak consumer sentiment, and mounting external pressure.
Why It Matters: Despite the stronger rhetoric, doubts linger about whether Beijing can act swiftly enough to avoid a repeat of 2024’s sluggish recovery. Beijing’s repeated failure to deliver on its promises risks creating a “crying wolf” problem, further eroding both domestic and international patience and making it even harder for the leadership to rebuild confidence.
By Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Lizzi described how “Tensions Over Industrial Policy and Trade Will Escalate” in the coming year in China 2025: What to Watch.
4. Xi Seeks Satellite Party Advice
What Happened: On December 6, Xi Jinping met with leaders from China’s eight satellite parties to seek their advice on economic matters.
The Recommendations: The satellite party leaders recommended that Xi focus on improving financial efficiency, innovation systems, sustainable energy consumption, national laboratories, skills-based hiring, the private sector, and cross-strait integrated development.
Mano a Mano: Xi acknowledged that China is facing a range of uncertainties and challenges but emphasized that the nation has historically grown through both ups and downs and must remain steadfast. He encouraged the satellite parties to continue supporting the Chinese Communist Party’s economic initiatives by enhancing political awareness, research quality, and personal capabilities.
Why It Matters: Many leaders from the eight minor political parties hold deputy national-level positions and are highly educated, some at Western institutions. If Xi ever considers advice from outside his own party, he turns to advisors from the satellite political parties. China watchers should pay more attention to them and their policies.
By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: In China 2025: What to Watch, CCA Fellow Neil Thomas and Lobsang analyzed how “Pressure Will Grow Between Xi’s Political Power and His Ability to Deliver Results.”
5. NBA on the Rebound in Macau
What Happened: The National Basketball Association (NBA) announced that exhibition games between the Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns will take place in Macau in October 2025, the first since the league’s teams were banned from playing in China after Houston Rockets coach Daryl Morey expressed support for the 2019 Hong Kong protests in a social media post.
Six Years in Exile: The Rockets were in China to play a preseason game against the Nets in October 2019 when the kerfuffle over Morey’s post erupted. After lengthy negotiations, the game went ahead, though it was not broadcast on Chinese television.
Big Business: State-run television resumed regular broadcasts of NBA games in 2022, but the league, which has profited handsomely in the China market over the past two decades, lost hundreds of millions due to the broadcast ban and canceled licensing agreements.
Why It Matters: Allowing NBA exhibition games to return — albeit only in Macau — is Beijing’s latest effort to mollify disenchanted foreign businesses as it attempts to reboot its economy. The games will also provide a diversion for fans struggling with the lagging social and economic effects of China’s COVID ordeal.
By G.A. Donovan, Fellow on Chinese Society and Political Economy, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: G.A. explained why “COVID-19’s Impact on Chinese Society Will Linger” in China 2025: What to Watch.