China 5 - April 11, 2025
Beijing responds to tariffs, new military base, Politburo personnel moves
THIS WEEK:
Beijing responds to Trump tariffs, China opens military base in Cambodia, unusual personnel moves in the Politburo, new plan to strengthen agriculture, and sim city: Shanghai policing edition
1. Beijing Responds to Trump Tariffs
What Happened: China fired back at the Trump administration’s steep tariff escalation in a tit-for-tat exchange, raising duties on U.S. goods to 125% in a swift retaliatory move just hours after the United States hiked tariffs on Chinese exports to a minimum of 145%, including a newly added 125% levy atop an existing 20% base rate.
Why It Matters: Beijing is focused on cushioning the shock of Trump’s trade war, expanding diplomatic room to maneuver, and deepening trade ties with the EU, Southeast Asia, and the Global South. Recent closed-door meetings among top leaders have reportedly centered on accelerating the rollout of previously planned stimulus — particularly policies to boost consumption and stabilize markets. However, without meaningful progress toward a consumption-led growth model, China’s ability to absorb prolonged external pressure is limited.
By Lizzi C. Lee, Fellow on Chinese Economy, Center for China Analysis (@wstv_lizzi)
Learn More: Watch a conversation co-hosted by CCA and ChinaFile on the shifting terrain of U.S.-China relations.
2. China Opens Military Base in Cambodia
What Happened: Beijing officially opened a “joint logistics and training center” at Ream Naval Base in southern Cambodia, its second publicly acknowledged overseas military base after Djibouti. According to the Ministry of National Defense, the center will be jointly maintained by both countries to support “regional counter-terrorism, disaster prevention, humanitarian assistance, and joint training.”
Why It Matters: The official explanation will not quell concerns about China’s regional intentions. China is expanding its global reach, and Ream will provide a potential staging ground for China’s burgeoning power projection capabilities in the South China Sea and beyond.
By Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security, Center for China Analysis (@LyleJMorris)
Learn More: Stay informed with PLA Watch, a monthly newsletter on China’s military from the Center for China Analysis.
3. Unusual Personnel Moves in the Politburo
What Happened: In an unprecedented move, Shi Taifeng, the head of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central United Front Work Department, and Li Ganjie, the head of the CCP Central Organization Department, have swapped roles. No official explanation was given. Both Shi and Li are members of the Politburo, the CCP’s leadership body.
Why It Matters: Xi has packed the top leadership with loyalists since securing a third term in 2022, and a purge of top military officials is apparently ongoing. Abrupt personnel changes within the Politburo may signal instability at the highest levels and future purges to come.
By Lobsang Tsering, Senior Research Associate, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Read Senior Fellow Guoguang Wu on why “Xi Jinping’s Purges Have Escalated. Here’s Why They Are Unlikely to Stop.”
4. New Plan to Strengthen Agriculture
What Happened: The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council issued a ten-year plan aiming to raise annual grain production to 700 million tons and achieve “a reasonable level of self-sufficiency” in important agricultural products by 2027. Additional goals include diversifying the food supply, enhancing food security, and scaling up agricultural technology.
Why It Matters: Amid growing geopolitical instability and escalating tariffs, China is looking to boost its agricultural resilience, reduce dependence on external supply chains, and insulate itself from potential global shocks. By leveraging its robust technological and agricultural strengths and innovations, China is well-positioned to maintain food security.
By Taylah Bland, Fellow on Climate and the Environment, Center for China Analysis (@Taylahbland)
Learn More: China may need more stimulus to deal with U.S.-China tensions, according to CCA Fellow Neil Thomas in his contribution to CCA’s post–Two Sessions coverage.
5. Sim City: Shanghai Policing Edition
What Happened: Using closed-circuit television networks, sensors, laser scans, and artificial intelligence algorithms, scientists from the Shanghai Surveying and Mapping Institute and the Ministry of Natural Resources’ Lab for Megacity Data Analytics have recreated the entirety of China’s most populous city in cyberspace. The digital twin of Shanghai allows law enforcement and emergency services to navigate the city virtually, including the interiors of individual buildings and rooms, making it easier to monitor and respond to incidents.
Why It Matters: A peer-reviewed article detailing the Orwellian thoroughness of the digitization project did not address privacy safeguards. While the Chinese government has acknowledged public concerns over facial recognition and similar technologies — recently enacting laws to give consumers more control over their data — these protections apply only to private companies. In Shanghai, public order prevails over privacy: criminal cases in the city dropped by 13.8% in 2024.
By Ian Lane Smith, Research Associate, Center for China Analysis
Learn More: Listen to “Will Innovation Made in China Change the World?” an Oxford Debate featuring CCA Fellow on Technology John Lee.