Can’t Out-Crazy Kim Jong Un
Daniel Russell on Pod Save the World
Following the news on March 7, 2018, that North Korea is willing to negotiate with the United States about its nuclear program, ASPI Diplomat in Residence and Senior Fellow Daniel Russel appeared on the latest episode of Pod Save the World. Russel spoke to podcast host Tommy Vietor about what the United States can expect from potential negotiations with North Korea.
Russel is doubtful that the announcement represents a breakthrough in the U.S.-North Korean relations, saying “it is far from convincing that we are on a path to some kind of peaceful settlement or credible negotiations." He hopes that North Korea’s sudden willingness to negotiate is the "effect of the sanctions over the years in aggregate, and the improved enforcement in recent years.” However, Russel emphasizes that this is “at most a tentative early signal” and warns that “if we start swinging for the fences at this point, we are going to strike out.”
The Trump administration should be cautious about recent developments, as “what is happening now is Kim Jong Un’s play, it is not Donald Trump’s play. This is his agenda; he is driving the action,” Russel says. According to the former diplomat, North Korea “doesn’t want to wage a nuclear war, it wants to … negotiate a rental deal where we basically pay off North Korea month to month, week to week to tamp down its misbehavior.” Therefore, Russel recommends that “if North Korea takes a step in the right direction we should respond positively, but we should not be paying or bribing North Korea to forgo the next provocation.”
The biggest concern for Russel is what happens if negotiations take place and the United States comes up short, because then there will be fewer diplomatic options left. (38 min., 7 sec.)