Asia's Climate Puzzle: COP29 and the Path Forward
9Dashline

The following is Betty Wang's op-ed in 9Dashline. Betty is a Senior Program Officer of Climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Once a year, the COP negotiations put a spotlight on the climate crisis, though the results are often a mixed bag of accomplishments and setbacks. COP29 — held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22 — was the latest in this series of meetings designed to facilitate global cooperation in addressing climate change. Among key achievements were the operationalization of the global carbon market and the formal adoption of a USD 300 billion annual climate finance goal for developing nations — a step forward, but far from the USD 1.3 trillion many argue is needed annually to finance climate action in the developing world.
As the world's largest regional emitter, Asia's role in global climate progress is critical and complex. The region is home to significant contributors to emissions and some of the most climate-vulnerable nations. Despite very low per capita emissions, Asian developing economies, which include China and India, account for over 50 per cent of global emissions today. At the same time, Pacific Island nations face existential threats from rising sea levels despite contributing less than 0.03 per cent of global emissions. Beyond headline announcements, significant disparities in priorities and capacities complicated the outcomes of COP29 for countries across the region. Asia's climate leadership hinges on addressing its internal complexities, bridging its vast disparities, and aligning global ambitions with actionable solutions.
Divergent Leadership Roles From Asia
China and India represent the paradox of Asia's climate challenges: both are significant contributors to global emissions with ongoing fossil fuel reliance as they continue to develop, yet they are also critical to crafting regional and global solutions. These two largest Asian economies showcased their contrasting visions of how they want to be positioned as climate leaders during the negotiations in Baku.
The Chinese delegation presented China as a technological and financial leader, emphasizing its role in green innovation and large-scale renewable energy investments. By highlighting its domestic achievements, such as the rapid growth of renewable capacity and infrastructure modernization, Beijing sought to position itself as a stabilizing force in climate governance amidst the growing possibility of a climate leadership vacuum from the United States for the next four years. Still, Beijing has made clear that it does not want to shoulder global climate leadership alone.
In contrast, India's stance reflected its dual role as a developing country with rising energy demands and an emerging advocate for reforming global climate finance structures. Having successfully showcased its leadership during its G20 presidency in 2023, at COP29, India positioned itself as a mediator between the Global North and South, emphasizing pragmatic internationalism as a balancing act between advancing domestic climate action and advocating for equitable financing. In addition to expressing dissatisfaction with the inadequacy of the USD 300 billion annual climate finance goal, India also rejected the deal outright, arguing that it failed to address the priorities and financial needs of developing nations.
Both domestic challenges and a lack of leadership in addressing Asia's shared issues — such as sharing water resources and climate-related disaster prevention — complicate China and India's visions of regional climate leadership. While both countries tried to present a leadership voice at COP29, they traditionally have struggled to turn their "talks" into reality, facing criticism for advancing bold international narratives while continuing heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels at home. Their leadership remains largely aspirational, hinging on decisive domestic actions and concrete regional initiatives to bridge the gap between ambition and impact. However, to date, China and India's actions — such as China's investments in renewable energy abroad and India's championing equitable climate finance — highlight their potential to drive further financial innovation, technological advances, and more inclusive climate action across Asia.
Asia's Climate Priorities
Asia faces numerous transboundary climate challenges that require urgent and coordinated action. Addressing these priorities — ranging from water security to energy transitions and disaster resilience — will require not only financing and technological innovation but also bold, targeted leadership from both China and India.
A mix of emerging economies, industrial giants, and vulnerable island nations, Asia's diversity renders uniform solutions to financing climate action largely ineffective. While growing economies like India and Indonesia need energy transition funding, small island nations demand adaptation finance. The "Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T," set to guide actions until COP30, is expected to help identify solutions to close this financing gap, but concrete pathways remain elusive. To effectively address these varied needs, China and India should vouch for a more tailored and equitable climate finance strategy for the rest of Asia. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), establishing minimum allocations at COP30 could ensure that the most vulnerable nations in the region receive adequate support.
Some Asian countries remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels, complicating the effort to transform the region into a series of low-carbon economies. While the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation has facilitated progress in Southeast Asia by promoting regional power grid interconnectivity and the integration of renewable energy sources, it is unlikely that such a framework can easily be replicated across the region as a whole due to differing levels of infrastructure development, political coordination, and energy market structures. Instead, targeted sub-regional collaborations could provide more feasible solutions, such as the tripartite agreement for renewable energy grid-sharing between countries like India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Further, expanding public-private partnerships to fund grid modernization and clean energy infrastructure would address financing gaps while enhancing energy security.
The rapid melting of glaciers in Central and South Asia is another example of a transboundary crisis that mandates immediate attention. Over the past 30 years, the High Mountain Asia region has lost 25 per cent of its glacier mass, threatening water security for millions who rely on river systems like the Indus and the Ganges. At COP29, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) led regional climate efforts and introduced the Glaciers to Farms (G2F) programme, which is intended to address these challenges by fostering cross-border resource management and data-sharing frameworks. Expanding such initiatives could be pivotal for improving early warning systems and strengthening regional adaptation measures. For instance, establishing a regional water security task force to coordinate climate-resilient infrastructure projects and integrate early warning systems for water shortages would strengthen collective preparedness.
Climate-induced disasters, which are increasing in frequency and intensity, also demand a regional approach. Recently, countries in Europe and Central Asia adopted a declaration committing to integrated disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. Separately, at COP29, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) unveiled new programmes with over USD 10 million in funding to enhance resilience, particularly for vulnerable regions such as South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Islands. China's recently announced early warning system action plan, which includes deploying new meteorological satellites, is a recent example of China's taking the reigns regionally and another promising step forward in improving disaster monitoring and response capacity. Expanding these efforts to include more robust regional training programmes and shared investment in early warning systems could mitigate the devastating effects of future disasters. Strengthening regional platforms to pool resources for disaster recovery would also ensure that financial support is readily available for the hardest-hit communities.
Looking forward
The COP29 negotiations underscored the potential for China and India to act as critical players in facilitating global climate progress, yet the lack of meaningful results highlighted the accompanying challenges. The period leading up to COP30 next year will offer India, China, and the rest of the region a critical chance to revise their nationally determined commitments (NDCs) and signal ambition to the global community. By leveraging advances in technology — such as the cost reductions in renewable energy and innovations in climate-resilient infrastructure — countries across Asia can align their updated NDCs with both climate goals and development priorities while attracting the necessary finance to make them actionable.
External pressure may also expedite China and India's journey towards becoming climate action leaders. The International Court of Justice's (ICJ) advisory opinion on states' climate obligations is expected to be released in 2025, and, while non-binding, the ICJ's decision could influence how responsibilities under international climate law are interpreted, particularly for major emitters like China and India. How these two countries respond to evolving international expectations for their domestic climate agendas will define their ability to drive meaningful progress abroad.
Ultimately, China and India's ability to assume the mantle of regional climate leadership will shape the lead-up to COP30 next year and beyond. To move forward, these two countries must transition from reactive measures to proactive leadership, leveraging various platforms to implement region-wide initiatives, from financing clean energy to scaling up adaptation projects. With the world's largest share of emissions and some of its most vulnerable populations, Asia's ability to navigate these complexities will define not only its climate trajectory but also the global fight to keep the 1.5°C target within reach.