The following is an excerpt from an op-ed written by Brendan Kelly, Non-Resident Fellow on Chinese Economy and Technology at Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, and Shay Wester, ASPI's Director of Asian Economic Affairs. The piece was published in Nikkei Asia.

A surge in exports pushed China's trade surplus close to $1 trillion in 2024, with ASEAN the largest destination for Chinese shipments. Many of these exports are intermediate goods that have in turn supported ASEAN's own export growth -- shipments to the U.S. exceeded $350 billion last year.

But as the Trump administration weighs reciprocal tariffs and urges trading partners to restrict Chinese imports, ASEAN risks losing unfettered access to Western markets while grappling with an influx of Chinese consumer goods that threaten local industries and jobs.

ASEAN faces a delicate balancing act: deepening economic integration with China while addressing pressure from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. At the same time, it must leverage cheap Chinese imports and rising investments to fuel industrial growth while preventing these inputs from overwhelming local firms.

Read the full article here.