Analysis: Record Surge of Clean Energy in 2024 Halts China’s CO2 Rise
Carbon Brief
The following is an excerpt from ASPI Senior Fellow Lauri Myllyvirta's article in the China Brief.
A record surge of clean energy kept China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions below the previous year’s levels in the last 10 months of 2024.
However, the new analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures and commercial data, shows the tail end of China’s rebound from zero-COVID in January and February, combined with abnormally high growth in energy demand, stopped CO2 emissions falling in 2024 overall.
While China’s CO2 output in 2024 grew by an estimated 0.8% year-on-year, emissions were lower than in the 12 months to February 2024.
Other key findings of the analysis include:
- China’s CO2 emissions grew 0.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, as hopes of stimulus measures pushed up industrial coal use and oil demand.
- In addition, wind and solar fell short of expected levels in the final quarter of 2024, likely as a result of being denied grid access in favor of coal power, which was flat year-on-year.
- Clean-energy capacity growth will accelerate in 2025 as largescale wind, solar and nuclear projects race to finish before the 14th five-year plan period comes to an end.
- Industrial electricity demand growth has slowed since summer 2024 and total energy demand growth eased in the fourth quarter of the year.
- These factors would be expected to push China’s coal-power output into decline in 2025, which would have international significance for energy markets and emissions.
- However, another period of industrial demand growth driven by government stimulus efforts could change this picture, particularly if the real-estate slump turns around.
As ever, the latest analysis shows that policy decisions made in 2025 will strongly affect China’s emissions trajectory in the coming years. In particular, both China’s new commitments under the Paris Agreement and the country’s next five-year plan are being prepared in 2025. In particular, both China’s new commitments under the Paris Agreement and the country’s next five-year plan are being prepared in 2025.