New Paper | EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy

Wednesday, March 19, 2025 — The Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) today published “EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy” by Simona Grano, CCA Senior Fellow on Taiwan. In the paper, Grano demonstrates how a number of variables, including Europe’s strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, the United States’ Taiwan policy, and the U.S.-EU relationship during the second Trump administration, will influence EU-Taiwan relations.

“The European Union and Taiwan have steadily deepened economic ties in recent years, forging closer cooperation in trade, technology, and geopolitics,” writes Grano. “Despite Taiwan’s lack of formal diplomatic recognition by the EU and its member countries, Taiwan’s pivotal role in global supply chains—especially in semiconductors and advanced technology—has made it an essential economic partner.”

Grano notes that the growing U.S.-China rivalry has added layers of complexity to the EU-Taiwan relationship. She discerns that Trump’s transactional and economically focused approach to foreign policy makes it difficult to determine whether his second term will see increased U.S. support for Taiwan in the form of sustained arms sales and official exchanges. The EU’s policies on Taiwan will also depend on how Trump engages Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. According to Grano, Trump’s actions could push the EU to adopt a more “autonomous position toward Taiwan” while seeking to “avoid direct confrontation with China by continuing a careful balancing act so as not to be caught in a conflict on multiple fronts.”

“The EU’s posture [toward Taiwan] will probably remain cautious, striking a balance between its economic links with Beijing and its rising support for Taiwan’s democratic values,” concludes Grano. “Recent milestones in EU-Taiwan relations underscore the growing importance of Taiwan as a strategic economic partner for the EU, particularly in technology and semiconductor production. Taiwan’s economic resilience in the face of increasing PRC coercion is notable, as it continues to expand its international ties, particularly with the EU and other like-minded partners.”

Read the full paper here. Members of the media interested in interviewing Grano should email [email protected].