New Paper | Chinese Nationalism, PRC Resolve, and Crisis Escalation: Views from Indo-Pacific Experts

August 14, 2024 — Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis (CCA) has published “Chinese Nationalism, PRC Resolve, and Crisis Escalation: Views from Indo-Pacific Experts” by Andrew Chubb, CCA Fellow on Foreign Policy and National Security.

The paper offers insights using data from a survey conducted with 799 international affairs experts in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in late 2023 and early 2024. The study compares respondents’ views of a crisis before and after Beijing issues a public threat statement, leading to a wave of online outrage and street demonstrations. The results indicate that a large majority of experts regard Chinese public opinion as a significant factor in hypothetical crisis situations involving their country.

“Beijing’s mobilization of Chinese public opinion elevated experts’ perceptions of risk in the crisis scenario. Region-wide, Chinese public opinion consistently generated substantial upgrades in experts’ assessments of the likelihood that China would use military force, impose economic punishment, and not back down,” writes Chubb.

The survey respondents were then asked how they would handle the crisis—through military reinforcement, avoiding confrontation, or standing firm—if Chinese public opinion was introduced into the scenario. Chubb infers that the “main effect on experts’ policy preferences was provocation. Chinese publicity was more likely to push analysts toward approving a military response and standing firm in the face of economic punishment than promote caution and compromise.”

These responses were notably more consistent than those of general citizens surveyed in an October 2023 study by CCA. “Whereas citizens in some countries actually downgraded their estimations of China’s resolve after Beijing went public in the crisis, experts around the region overwhelmingly increased their estimations,” concludes Chubb. “Indo-Pacific experts appear to attach much more significance to Chinese public opinion than general citizens do.”

Read the full paper here. Members of the media interested in interviewing Chubb should email [email protected].