Future of East Asia
August 18, 2015 – The Asia Society Korea Center, in partnership with the East Asia Foundation, co-hosted a special panel discussion titled "Future of East Asia". The discussion explored how recent events in East Asia may affect the relationship with the U.S., and what needs to be done differently in order to achieve global prosperity and stability. The distinguished panelists gave high-level perspectives on the shifts in economics, culture, policy and security in the region. The event started with opening remarks from Asia Society Korea Center Honorary Chairman Dr. Hong-Koo Lee, before moderator John Delury, Senior Fellow at the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society and Associate Professor of International Studies at Yonsei University, introduced each of the panelists. Each participant gave a different perspective from the viewpoints of the U.S, Korea, China, Russia and North Korea before engaging in open discussion. Those in attendance, including Asia Society members, the local diplomatic community, students and the media, were then invited to participate in a question and answer session with the panelists.
Orville Schell, Arthur Ross Director at the Center on U.S.-China Relations at Asia Society kicked off proceedings by talking about how at the heart of what is happening with the U.S and East Asia is the relationship between the U.S and China. In fact, the entire world is affected by U.S-China relations – relations that are currently engulfed with mistrust. Schell spoke about the U.S disappointment at Chinese congress and their attitudes towards the media and academia among others. Although there is little grounds for optimism, the one thing that the two countries do agree upon is on the issue of climate change. Schell believes that this area provides an interesting opportunity to build common interest and relations.
Next to take the stage was Sung-Joo Han, Global Council member at Asia Society and former Foreign Minister of Korea. Han talked about how at present, Korea is uncomfortable with the battle for power between the U.S and China, giving its administration a policy dilemma. Han gave the example of the upcoming Victory Day Parade in China, where China expects President Park Geun-Hye to visit while the U.S has said that it would be disappointed if Park were to attend. Moving forward, Korea wants cooperation in the region however remains apprehensive about the power distribution between China and Russia on one side and the U.S and Japan on the other.
Giving the views from within China were Jin Canrong, Professor for International Relations at Renmin University and Shen Dingli, Professor of International Relations at Fudan University. Professor Jin argued that although China is experiencing an economic slowdown, security problems with Japan, strained relations with the U.S and a lack of dialogue with Kim Jong Un, the status quo of the region is ok and that all of these tensions are under control. Moving forward, Jin believes that the future of East Asia is open but four players will have a big say in what direction it takes: China, the U.S, Japan and Korea. Professor Shen then spoke about the hot topics of economic instability within China and the security issues that we see in the South China Sea.
Andrei Lankov, Professor of History at Kookmin University, was in agreement that Russia and North Korea will play marginal roles in the future of East Asia. Although Russian relations with the U.S are extremely bad, Russia also has a deep mistrust of China. Looking to the future, Russia will focus most of its efforts on domestic issues and will not have too much international involvement other than the protection of its oil markets. North Korea is another important non-player who will continue to play bigger powers against each other in order to gain leverage, politically or financially.
Video: Watch the complete programme (1 hr. 29 min.)
* Summary by Matthew Fennell