STATE OF ASIA 2024

A Conference on the World's Most Dynamic Region

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All pictures by André Hengst.

With our third STATE OF ASIA conference now complete, we're delighted to celebrate another successful gathering. This year, over 150 esteemed guests and speakers from Asia and Europe joined us at the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue, for in-depth discussions on the critical trends shaping Asia today.

The evening before the conference, in partnership with the University of Zurich, we hosted the State of Asia Address featuring renowned historian Adam Tooze. He shared a kaleidoscopic perspective on “Asia in the Age of Polycrisis,” exploring the potential impact of global dynamics on Asia and key challenges the region faces today.

Couldn’t join us in person? We’ve got you covered – videos of each session, key takeaways, and access to the State of Asia Address are available now below and on YouTube. You can also explore the photo gallery from the Address and the STATE OF ASIA conference.

Looking ahead to next year? Mark your calendars: on the evening of November 5, 2025, we’ll host the next State of Asia Address, followed by a full day of programming at the fourth annual STATE OF ASIA conference on November 6, 2025. Join us as we dive deeper into Asia’s evolving role on the global stage – we look forward to welcoming you back!

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On November 6, 2024, prominent global thinker Adam Tooze delivered Asia Society Switzerland's third annual State of Asia Address: "Asia in the Age of Polycrisis," in partnership with the University of Zurich.

Tooze, who holds the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis chair of History at Columbia University in New York City and directs the European Institute there, was named one of Foreign Policy’s top Global Thinkers of the decade in 2019. Chartbook, his newsletter on economics, geopolitics, and history, has over 128,000 subscribers.

The full speech is available as a podcast, video, and in transcript. Here are our key takeaways:

Europe and the West need to Come to Terms With Asian Agency and Diversity

Asia is the greatest generator of change and solutions in the world today. It needs to be, given its immense challenges. While it has lifted billions out of poverty, 650 million people in countries ranging from Myanmar to Pakistan, Thailand to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, are still extremely vulnerable, facing one or multiple crises: climate, political, social, financial, or security.
Optimism around Asia’s rise often focuses on a few standout countries, like Japan, China, and South Korea, which have successfully eliminated extreme poverty. However, many countries in South and Southeast Asia have not achieved such levels of progress.
To participate in a truly globalized world, the West must come to terms with Asia’s vast regional diversity. This requires tracking events in detail and in real time, moving beyond simple generalizations. Decisions made in Beijing or Delhi, for instance, now have a lot more impact on global issues such as climate change than the outcome of U.S. elections.
Western countries need to acknowledge Asia’s agency and autonomy. Asia’s priorities are not necessarily ours, and our problems in the West are not necessarily theirs.

Intra-Asian Trade Drives Globalization, and the West Must Prove It Can Decouple

China has the upper hand in global trade, as it absolutely dominates manufacturing. The initial ‘China shock’ came when China integrated itself into our supply chains. Now, a second ‘China shock’ is unfolding as the West competes to be incorporated into China’s supply chains, notably in the electric vehicle industry.
This dynamic shows the U.S. and Europe are reacting to these successive ‘China shocks’ with their industrial and trade policies, rather than leading the shift. The West has to prove it can afford to decouple from China.
For two decades, intra-Asian trade has been a major driver of globalization. The U.S. withdrawing into a more isolationist position will just hand more of the game to Asia, because that’s where the demand is going to be.

The Return of Trump Poses a Crisis for Europe, but Less So for Asia

For Europe, Trump embodies the polycrisis: a combination of populism, climate denial, ambivalence towards NATO, a disinhibited personality. A perfect storm, where the whole is more troubling than the sum of its parts.
Asia, however, is relatively calm about the U.S. election outcome, reflecting its growing self-confidence. It is rising, and it knows it.
Although Asia, like Europe, faces tense geopolitics, its trajectory is less dependent on U.S. election outcomes, as broader security relationships are still taking shape.
Many Asian nations, see Europe’s antagonist Russia as being far away. And in the case of China and India, Russia is friendly. India, like Vietnam, is in a sweet spot of being wanted by both sides of the global power dynamic. Meanwhile, China knows it’s America’s antagonist, regardless of who sits in the White House.

Welcome Remarks

With Nico Luchsinger

Asia Society Switzerland Executive Director Nico Luchsinger delivered the opening remarks, highlighting the significance of Asia, the importance of geopolitics, and the necessity for increased Asia Competence.

Session 1: The State of the World

With Adam Tooze and Kyung-wha Kang

Asia Society President & CEO Kyung-wha Kang and historian Adam Tooze opened the conference with a look at the state of the world, two days after the U.S. election that will bring Donald Trump back to the White House. These are our key takeaways from their conversation:

Flexibility Is Essential in a Changing World

Europe’s deep-rooted commitment to Transatlanticism will face strain, as the Trump administration is likely to distance itself from the transatlantic alliance.
This forces Europe to think of a world with a less-engaged America and explore closer with Asia.
Europe should make work of hedging its interests. Aligning with flexible and diverse partners in Asia could be a prudent move.
Europe has options: it could form alliances with value-sharing nations like South Korea and Japan, or pursue pragmatic economic interests, such as with China. Strategic flexibility is essential.

As the U.S. Will Think of Asia Mostly as China, We Can Expect Profound Tension

America’s domestic divisions, lack of direction, and blurred vision of the future are key concerns, affecting its global relationships.
This affects its relationships, as often measures taken towards countries like China are really just ways of America working out its domestic issues.
The U.S. aims to assert dominance, but its internal conflicts may undermine the credibility and effectiveness of its position in Asia.

Countries in Asia Are Seeing Shifts, Too

Countries in Asia have gone through an era of enormous successful growth modes. But people have paid a huge prize for that over the past two generations.
To be successful as an individual in these countries, while also having children, has become too draining and competitive.
The pursuit of a better life has paradoxically led to declining birth rates and shrinking populations, as people increasingly forgo having children due to the high personal costs involved.

Session 2: Eastwards - Economic Trajectories of India, China, and Japan

With Alicia García Herrero, Yumiko Murakami, and Garima Mohan

Alicia García Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis; Yumiko Murakami, General Partner at MPower Partners Fund, L.P.; and Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow in the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States discussed the potential trajectories for the economies of Japan, China, and India. These are our key takeaways from their conversations:

Japan’s Economy Shows Optimism Amid Structural Change

Japan's economy is benefiting from structural shifts like labor market reforms, wage increases for the first time in three decades, and corporate investments in human capital, boosting productivity.
The pickup in profitability and the positive performance of the Japanese stock market will have much more lasting power because of this.
Japan has also opened up to immigration a lot more than even only a few years ago. The government is realizing it is out of other options, as Japan is one of the fastest-ageing societies in the world and companies are forced to cut back operations as they can no longer find enough people to sustain their activities.
At the same time, a technological tsunami is hitting Japan. Fewer people are needed to do the same amount of work. Digitalization has put Japan in a sweet spot that is starting to pay off.

China’s Growth Has Peaked, Yet It Retains Global Influence

Deflation, a much lower consumption than India’s, a public debt that’s higher than Japan’s, and a very troublesome income distribution are all reasons the gap between the U.S. and the Chinese economy will only widen.
Productivity is going down, returns on investments are low because of overcapacity. China’s economic growth could get down to 1% by 2035, once the current growth of the labor force in cities becomes stagnant and ageing is starting to hit harder.
China needs a consumption-based stimulus, but this would require reducing subsidies and military spending, or privatizing state-owned companies—measures unlikely to happen.
Data already shows the U.S., not China, is the largest export market for Japan, South Korea, and most of Southeast Asia. Economically, China won’t be the center of Asia.
China’s advantage over others: it is a global hard power in a way Japan is not. China can bring other countries along, for example in the BRICS, in challenging the dollar and in dominating the Global South.

India Is Scrambling to Shed Its Protectionist Past and Create Jobs

By 2030, one in five working-age people worldwide will be Indian, putting pressure on India to generate 13-14 million jobs annually, particularly in manufacturing, to support economic mobility and tax revenue.
India moves away from its traditionally protectionist system and is looking for low-hanging fruit in FTAs with other countries to realize this.
The country is seeing a revival in manufacturing, as companies are pursuing a China+1 policy and India’s ‘Make in India’ program is really picking up steam.
India is courting Europe for collaboration in investment, technology, migration, and defense. Europe’s strengths in sectors like automotive, pharmaceuticals, and electronics align well with India’s job creation and economic goals.

Session 3: The State of China

With Adam Tooze, Qing Wang, and Zichen Wang. Moderated by Finbarr Bermingham

Zichen Wang, Director for International Communications at the Center for China and Globalization; Qing Wang, host of the popular Chinese-language podcast The Weirdo; and leading global thinker and historian Adam Tooze discussed the state of China and its future with the new U.S. administration. These are our key takeaways from their conversation:

China Is Undergoing Unprecedented Changes

China is shifting from infrastructure-led growth to manufacturing-led growth. The scale of this institutional change is huge.
Previously reliant on producing items like t-shirts to finance major imports, China now manufactures its own airplanes, electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries, positioning itself as a formidable competitor.
Europe, instead of imposing punitive tariffs, could benefit by forming joint ventures with Chinese companies. Some countries, like Spain, are already embracing this strategy.
Chinese consumers are increasingly cautious, expecting an economic downturn and adjusting their spending accordingly.
China’s social safety net is still developing, with a shorter history than in Northern Europe. There is also a cultural mindset that hardship precedes improvement, as experienced by previous generations.
Pragmatism is on the rise among young people; fewer are driven by aspirations to become billionaires, and many are content to settle in second- or third-tier cities, embracing slower growth and modest lifestyles.

Domestic Affairs Determine Foreign Policy, Not the Other Way Around

China’s international relationships primarily serve its domestic growth. The notion that its foreign policy is geared towards global dominance, especially over the U.S., is a misconception.
That is why China is now working on better relations with Australia, India, and others. Beijing is trying to stabilize its external environment, in order to improve its domestic economic development.
Similarly, China’s industrial policies, often resulting in overcapacity, are not intended to undermine other nations’ manufacturing sectors. They emerge from local governments, comparable in size to EU states, focusing on internal targets.
However, restrictions limit what European companies can do in China. The potential would be much more promising if China would open up its market.

For China, the Relationship With the U.S. Is Not a Zero-Sum Game

It is unclear whether China is happy with Trump returning for no other reason than that he would create havoc and weaken the U.S. and its allies. Beijing doesn’t believe a weaker U.S. automatically means a stronger China. It is mostly looking for a constructive, mutual beneficial relationship.
There was a surprising level of indifference in China towards the U.S. election. There was hope that Biden would have pursued a less-hawkish China policy than Trump in his first term. As that hasn’t panned out, the Chinese public now considers neither of the two U.S. political parties to be friends of China, making it less relevant who sits in the White House from the perspective of their bilateral relationship.
However, the return of Trump is very difficult to process for many Chinese women. They’ve seen global misogyny take hold and bring right-wing groups election victories in Germany, the UK, France, South Korea. Women in China are well aware any global changes to move away from masculine dominance are further away now.

Session 4: India and Indonesia: Can They Pull It Off?

With Garima Mohan, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, and James Crabtree

Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar from Indonesia’s Research Center for Politics; Garima Mohan, Senior Fellow in the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States; and James Crabtree, author, analyst, and TOY Senior Fellow at Asia Society Switzerland, discussed what we can expect from two of the region’s juggernauts: India and Indonesia. These are our key takeaways from their conversation:

India Moves From Non-alignment to Multi-Alignment

The recent India-China border de-escalation deal led some in the West to question India’s loyalties. However, the issue remains unresolved, and India continues to find it easier to partner with the U.S. and Europe than with China.
While BRICS is often seen as anti-Western, India values its ties with the West and does not want BRICS to become a China-led bloc. Instead, India often brings a Western perspective into BRICS discussions.
India maintains its engagement with Russia, albeit with modest ambitions, to avoid pushing Russia closer to China, which could destabilize the region.
India’s relationship with the U.S. remains critical, especially given concerns about a potential unipolar Asia dominated by China. As potential U.S.-China tensions escalate, India will continue to collaborate with other regional middle powers to balance influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Simultaneously, India seeks to compete with China by reaching out to the Global South. It was under India’s presidency of the G20 that the African Union joined that forum.
All in all, India sees itself as a partner in multiple alignments. It’s a far cry from the non-alignment of the past.

Indonesia’s Aspirations for an Active, Balanced Foreign Policy

The Cold War was a hot war in Southeast Asia. This has led Indonesia to be actively non-aligned, trying to stay out of other countries’ (proxy) wars.
Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s new leader, sees himself as an activist foreign policy president. He wants to be robust on the world stage.
Indonesia adheres to a ‘free and active foreign policy’ doctrine, avoiding alliances with major powers. Its shift from non-alignment 1.0 (passive neutrality) to non-alignment 2.0 (active multi-alignment) is reflected in its approach to engaging all sides.
This explains why one of Prabowo’s first foreign policy acts was to sign up for membership of BRICS. At the same time, Indonesia is also seeking to join the OECD.
Although traditionally cautious with China, Indonesia now adopts a pragmatic approach, leveraging Chinese investment to advance its economic goals, particularly in processing natural resources like nickel domestically. This is central to Indonesia’s focus and ambition for a better future.
To avoid becoming too dependent on China, though, the country is actively diversifying and seeking access to European and American markets.

Session 5: Down to Business - Ageing, Resources, the AI Race

With Adam Tooze (chair), Yumiko Murakami, Dewi Fortuna Anwar, and Alicia García Herrero

Yumiko Murakami of MPower Partners Fund, L.P.; Alicia García Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis; and Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Professor at Indonesia’s Research Center for Politics, spoke with leading global thinker and historian Adam Tooze about three key issues: ageing, resources, and AI innovation. These are our key takeaways from their conversations:

Finding Opportunity in an Ageing Society

Japan has the fastest-ageing society in the world. While this is seen as a huge challenge, it also creates new markets and business opportunities.
As people age, spending priorities shift from large assets like houses or cars to services such as travel, creating evolving consumer markets. Japan is actively exploring how to maximize this trend.
Japan’s ageing has also led the government to make it easier for foreigners to obtain work and residence permits in the country, though much still needs to be done. While immigration procedures are much smoother than even only a few years ago, large-scale immigration is a difficult change to digest, as has become clear in other countries.
Meanwhile, the root cause of ageing persists: the cost of having children is too high, and a lot higher for women than it is for men. The government realizes that has to change, but programs to support working fathers are still lacking.

Resource Wealth Alone Doesn’t Drive Economic Advancement

Relying solely on natural resources, especially in developing countries, is not sustainable. Investment in education, human development, and innovation is essential for upward mobility.
Indonesia realizes this and has banned the export of unprocessed raw materials like nickel.
President Prabowo is even more ambitious in controlling Indonesia’s resources and forcing companies that extract them to also process them in Indonesia. He wants to move away from the colonial-style economy of exporting cheap raw materials, only to buy back more expensive finished products down the line.
Banning the e-commerce platforms of Chinese companies like Temu and TikTok to operate in Indonesia, which were hurting local small businesses, also follows this thought. The ban drove TikTok to invest, successfully, in existing Indonesian platform Tokopedia.
Indonesia’s trade and industrial policies impact global companies from China, the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere: another sign of the country’s multi-alignment strategy.

China and the U.S. Lead Innovation on AI; The Outlook for Europe Is Uncertain

Industrial innovation is most likely to happen when companies gather in clusters. Vertical integration in a single company is difficult to achieve.
China’s industrial policy promotes clustering through subsidies, though the effectiveness is debated, as many subsidized companies divert funds and fail to increase exports.
AI innovation is concentrated in China and the U.S., driven by a few major players like Huawei, Apple, Baidu, Meta, and Bytedance.
Europe competes with China and the U.S. in quantum innovation but struggles to commercialize its breakthroughs. Unlike China’s Huawei, Europe’s advancements largely depend on publicly funded research from universities, casting doubt on Europe’s ability to maintain momentum in the private sector.

Session 6: Europe's Asian Future

With Kyung-wha Kang and James Crabtree

Asia Society President & CEO Kyung-wha Kang and James Crabtree, author, analyst, and TOY Senior Fellow at Asia Society Switzerland, shared their views on Europe’s Asian future and other issues. These are our key takeaways from their conversation:

Asia’s Interest in Stronger European Engagement

It’s curious to see so much soul searching going on in Europe about its future partnerships.
South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asian countries are all interested and very ready to engage and partner with Europe as a third weight to balance out the dominance of China and the U.S.
The opportunities for collaboration exist. Europe just needs to grasp them.

Global Peace and Security Are Now Left to Whatever National Leaders Want

The international system is unable to stop conflict as long as the UN has a dysfunctional Security Council at its core.
That leaves global peace and security in the hands of national leaders and whatever they’re willing to spend their political capital on.
It’s not right to dismiss the whole UN system, though. Especially the humanitarian agencies, like the World Food Program and the World Health Organization, are still providing essential services.

China, North Korea, Will Take Their Time With the New U.S. Administration

It is becoming increasingly difficult to know what China’s leader Xi Jinping wants. He will take his time in determining how to respond to the incoming Trump administration in the U.S.
The anti-China rhetoric in Washington is coming from both parties. It is non-factual and not helpful for a stable relationship between the two powers.
Different than during the first Trump administration, North Korea now has found a good friend in Russia, giving it what it needs. That makes it unlikely Kim Jong-un is as keen to meet with Trump as he was in 2018.
North Korea’s military contribution to Russia’s war in Ukraine is not an immediate threat today but can be a huge threat to global security in the medium and long term. We do not know what North Korea is getting from Russia in return, but Kim Jong-un is now in a good position to ask Moscow for important military technology that could really end up changing the game.

Gen A x STATE OF ASIA

In its mission to foster Asia Competence, Asia Society Switzerland is committed to empowering young voices in dialogue with Asia. We offer the Gen A - Young Leadership Program to young professionals and advanced students under the age of 35 in Switzerland. This year, once again some of the most outstanding final projects of the Gen A Class of 2024 were presented at the STATE OF ASIA Conference.

In-person

STATE OF ASIA 2025

ព្រហស្បតិ៍ 6 វិច្ឆិកា 2025
9 a.m. - 6 p.m.

STATE OF ASIA, Asia Society Switzerland’s yearly flagship conference, provides a condensed overview of current and future developments in Asia, and how they affect the world. It brings together our most trusted experts on the region.
In-person

State of Asia Address 2025

ពុធ 5 វិច្ឆិកា 2025
6:30 - 8 p.m.

On the eve of our flagship STATE OF ASIA Conference, we are hosting our public State of Asia Address in collaboration with the University of Zurich.

STATE OF ASIA 2024

A Conference on the World's Most Dynamic Region

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