Illustration by Rocco Fazzari.

POLITE DEMOCRACY

Prabowo Subianto has been a political chameleon during at least five attempts to run his country: renegade military officer, farmers’ friend, family dynast, and multilingual student are just a few of them.

Now that Indonesia’s eighth president, and the third directly elected, is in office; perhaps the most fascinating question is how he plans to turn Asia’s still evolving second biggest democracy into a “polite democracy”. Indeed, the most striking line from his inauguration speech was the declaration that “our democracy must be a democracy that is distinctively Indonesian, a democracy that is fitting for our nation, a democracy that stems from our history and culture.”

Coming from a man who has tried various creative paths to power both in military uniform and on the streets; built the country’s third most successful current political party; and has also managed to woo the Tik Tok generation at the age of 73, Indonesia faces some testing political times ahead. That only makes Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s inability to attend the inauguration due to the clashing Royal Tour look even more inept.

Meanwhile, Japan’s much more staid democracy has unexpectedly overshadowed Prabowo’s inauguration by joining the global trend towards more multiparty, coalition-style government in last Sunday’s early election. It is still too soon to know what this means for the Liberal Democratic Party’s dominant position since 1955, but more recent history suggests there will be some chaotic party shifting in the initial months ahead. See: NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH

Former foreign minister Gareth Evans has left his fingerprints on Australia’s place in Asia from the Cambodian peace deal to the crafting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. But as he enters his ninth decade, he is still full of ideas for the future as was demonstrated by a speech to a private function in Sydney this month. We’ve teased out the key points without the more entertaining Chatham House anecdotes and Q&A in ASIAN NATION.

Greg Earl
Briefing MONTHLY editor

NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH

JAPAN: POLITICAL HARA-KIRI

Picture: BBC 

For a politician who won his country’s leadership only a month ago as a man of the people rather than the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) factional bosses, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba appears to have missed the voter focus group.

He called the fastest election after becoming prime minister in 70 years and now seems at risk of being the country’s shortest term prime minister after the conservative LDP lost its coalition majority at Sunday’s poll.

The LDP/Komeito coalition has fallen from 279 seats in the 465 seat Diet to 215. They last lost their majority in 2009 when the leftist then Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came to power for three tumultuous years. The only previous time the LDP has been out of power since it was formed in 1955 was briefly in 1993.

Ishiba, who presents as a strong-willed reformer, seemed to think he would suppress faction bosses and the other competitors he faced in the September LDP leadership vote with a popular mandate, as some predecessors have done before him.

But after years of deflation, seemingly endless LDP corruption scandals, and dynastic politics, the public voted twice. Firstly, with a low voter turnout of 53 per cent reflecting disenchantment with the political system. And then secondly by giving the three main opposition parties, plus a motley collection of others, a bare majority in the Diet, even though there is almost no prospect they can coalesce enough to form government.

That makes it likely that the LDP will have to make itself the foundation of a minority government under yet another prime minister, possibly an independent figure, who will have to spend most of their time shoring up a legislative majority. Ishiba says he will stay in office to prevent national stagnation, but that would require him to win a vote in the Diet by November 26 but probably around November 11.

The DPJ’s leftist successor the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is now notionally the alternative government after winning 50 new seats for total of 148. But in a multi-party coalition environment, two other parties are more interesting.

The populist, right-wing Osaka-based Japan Innovation Party has been the party to watch for change in Japan for ten years but did not perform well in this election as an alternative to the CDP as the main opposition force. That makes the newer centrist conservative Democratic Party for the People, which won a big increase in seats, and its leader Tamaki Yuichiro the key players to watch in the weeks ahead.

• Tokyo Review has a good wrap of the winners and losers from the election across the full spectrum of Japanese politics.

INDONESIA: PRABOWO RULES

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s desire to create a “polite democracy” might get its first test in the relationships between the members of his sprawling ministry of 48 ministers and 58 vice-ministers.

Perhaps aware that appointing one of the largest ministries since the 1960s with all the risks of wasteful spending and nepotism might not look so good, they were all immediately sent to a four day boot camp at a military base to build a sense of solidarity.

The ministry contains unexpected holdovers from the Joko Widodo years such as finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and health minister Budi Sadikin. They are alongside more political holdovers such as senior economy minister and Golkar Party heavyweight Airlangga Hartarto and former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s son Agus.

The ministry is heavier on politicians and businesspeople than experts compared with what was once typical in Indonesia reflecting the large multi-party coalition Prabowo has assembled in the legislature. In some cases, this has required more vice-ministers with expertise to supporter newcomers such as foreign minister Sugiono, a politician without background in foreign policy, unlike most Indonesian foreign ministers.

The inauguration speech tended to focus on his election campaign promises embellished with the broader call for a country with “an atmosphere of unity” rather than “prolonged bickering”. “Our democracy must be a tranquil democracy, a peaceful democracy, a democracy that avoids hypocrisy,” he said adding to speculation that he might want to pull back from direct election of government leaders across the country to the older system where parties tended to control appointments.

Food and energy self-sufficiency got considerable attention setting the scene for more interventionist policies in these areas – particularly food where he set a 4-5 year target for self-sufficiency. But he did not specifically mention his predecessor’s key policy to establish a new national capital suggesting spending on the Nusantara project could be directed elsewhere.

He also devoted noticeable attention to demonstrating his government was free from corruption at the top in an echo of the way Chinese President Xi Jinping has used a corruption crackdown to remove suspected opponents.

Prabowo specifically thanked all the foreign dignitaries in attendance telling them Indonesia would stick to its traditional policy of non-alignment. But Anthony Albanese’s absence meant Australia slipped down the diplomatic pecking order to 17 where deputy prime minister Richard Marles was preceded by representatives from Serbia and Vanuatu.

• Jacqui Baker, in Australian Foreign Affairs, says Prabowo’s Djojohadikusumo family has pursued power since Dutch colonial times through upsets that would have been fatal for less resilient elite clans.

SAMOA: PACIFIC SUISSE

Samoa was the first Pacific Island nation to secure independence in 1962 and now it has become the first to host a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).

While hosting CHOGM may well boost Samoa’s status as a paragon of neutrality on a region facing growing great power rivalry, the Commonwealth’s reach far into the Pacific to find a climate change mission only seemed to reinforce questions about its future. The leader of its largest member, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demonstrated that by instead opting to attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Summit in Russia.

Samoa’s Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa said the Commonwealth event was a great opportunity for foreign leaders to experience her country’s lived reality of climate change which was the “the greatest threat to the survival and security of our Pacific people”.

But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese played down a Pacific Island country report which blamed Australia for contributing to regional climate change. It said Britain, Canada, and Australia were responsible for 60 per cent of Commonwealth carbon emissions even though they only had six per cent of the group’s population.

“They recognise the challenge of climate change doesn’t mean you can flick a switch and act immediately,” Albanese said, “We need to make sure energy security is prioritised to make sure we have that support going forward.

• At The Interpreter, Sheridan Ward says Samoa has the credibility to play a bigger role in raising the profile of the Pacific as a peaceful part of the world.

SUMMITS: LAOS’ MOMENT

New players: Singapore’s Lawrence Wong and Thailand’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra at the Summit. 
Picture: Singapore government

It says a lot about the growing managerial divide within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that this year’s chair country Laos held the required two annual leader’s meetings on the same day this month.

Reclusive Laos could always argue that the Special Summit in Australia in March provided enough leaders level talking time this year and that its real task was to provide the usual late year platform for the broader 16-member East Asia Summit.

But the Laos moment in the diplomatic spotlight has only underlined how ASEAN is captive to the variable abilities of its disparate members. This year China and Russia prevented a consensus statement from the EAS leaving China-aligned Laos to issue a relatively anodyne chair’s statement. And the Myanmar conflict has continued unabated with Laos having limited capacity for initiatives. Meanwhile Timor Leste’s elevation to full membership has been speeded up, only highlighting the divide between resource poor, small members like it and the richer or larger countries like Singapore and Indonesia.

In the key points from this year’s summits:

Climate change: Leaders from Japan, Australia and ASEAN agreed to adopt shared rules for calculating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions.

South China Sea: Russia and China blocked a proposed consensus statement for the East Asia Summit drafted by Southeast Asian countries, mainly over objections to language on the contested South China Sea but also other international security issues. Earlier Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used the meetings to condemn China's maritime aggression and chide his fellow ASEAN leaders for turning a blind eye to the tensions.

Myanmar: Thailand’s new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra used the Summit to propose an “informal” ASEAN consultation in Bangkok in December to deal with the Myanmar civil war as the military junta tries to legitimise itself with an election.

Trade: Despite maritime tensions with China, the Southeast Asian countries still concluded an upgrade of their trade agreement with China which now has an environment chapter that may flow on to other ASEAN-based trade deals.

Timor: The ten incumbent nations accelerated the process of accepting East Timor as the 11th member to 2025 or 2026 with likely concessions on trade and investment liberalisation rules.

Asian NATO:  Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba downplayed his recent leadership campaign backing for a new Asian security organisation at his first international meeting reflecting the ASEAN view that it is the fulcrum of regional security.

Australia’s role: Prime Minister mainly used the Summits to draw attention to Australia’s own ASEAN Summit in March and the government’s measures to boost business links to Southeast Asia. See Advancing Implementation in DEALS AND DOLLARS.

• See A Small Country’s Big Moment at Fulcrum for ASEAN’s year under the leadership of one of its smallest members.

ASIAN NATION

GARETH’S CHECKLIST

It is now more than half a century since former foreign minister Gareth Evans set out on a three-month odyssey across Asia to eventually study at Oxford University.

But the formative experiences from that travel in places including Indonesia, Vietnam and India provided the personal foundations for Evans’ later long career in international relations from foreign minister, to International Crisis Group president, to other positions including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Commission. They were also the starting point for a reflective speech to a private group in Sydney this month by the now octogenarian Evans about how to maintain or enhance Australia’s future in Asia.

The event was off the record, but Evans has allowed Briefing Monthly to summarise his five key points. They are not particularly new. But collectively they deserve recording as a benchmark for the future from one of the key figures in a distinct generation of Australian Asian engagement policymakers.

1: The new generation of political leaders needs the instinctive feel for Asia that he experienced as a young traveller and the decline in language study, amongst other things, suggests this is not happening.

2: While virtually no one in the region really wants to choose, Evans says Australia would be better served by a governing class and commentariat less spooked by China and more spooked by developments in the US.

3: There is a need to take a broader view of Australia's national interests beyond security and prosperity encompassing, for example, being a good international citizen in fields including human rights, peacekeeping and public goods.

4: More private sector involvement in “underdone” countries such as Indonesia and India will be critical to an Asian future.

5: The value of Asian-Australians as a national resource needs to be better understood and used “to position ourselves as a genuinely multicultural Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific nation – wholly at peace with our geography, no longer any kind of outsider.”

PACIFIC DISASTERS

A new rapid response initiative intended to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the Pacific is set to boost coordination and increase efficiency by reducing the risks that emergency aid is delivered in an uncoordinated way.

The Pacific Response Group (PRG) brings together military personnel from Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, France, Tonga, Papua New Guinea and Chile to jointly train, deploy and offer assistance during natural disasters across the region. It will be brought into action only when requests are made from affected Pacific island countries.

The PRG was endorsed at the October 3 South Pacific Defence Ministers' Meeting (SPDMM), which is the main channel for regional defence chiefs to discuss security and humanitarian cooperation. Besides the seven member countries, observers from Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States also participated in the three-day meeting held in Auckland, New Zealand.

While Pacific leaders say climate change is their most pressing security concern with natural disasters and severe weather events, the need to manage these emergencies is overshadowed by the intensifying competition for influence that is reshaping the region’s security environment.

MYANMAR’S OTHER CRISIS

Managing the dislocation of Myanmar’s Rohingya people has become Australia’s largest humanitarian crisis, according to Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who announced a further nine million dollars in assistance through the Australian Humanitarian Partnership to support communities and conflict affected populations in Myanmar.

Successive Labor and Coalition governments have spent $880 million in assistance for Rohingya, their host communities in Bangladesh and people across Myanmar since 2017. Wong said: “We support the rights of Rohingyas to live safely as citizens in Myanmar. We want to see conditions put in place that would allow Rohingyas to return in a voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable way.”

DEALS AND DOLLARS

LOBSTER AND EGGS

The restoration of Australian lobster trade with China has come with a now familiar diplomatic routine which suggests much underlying uncertainty in the relationship with Australia’s largest trading partner.

Australian ministers have talked up the notional end of Chinese trade coercion after four years with much greater enthusiasm than their Chinese counterparts; there is still lack of clarity about just how the trade will resume; the Chinese seem to be looking for a face-saving concession from Australia; and the Australian government is continuing to urge exporters to China to diversify.

So Trade Minister Don Farrell went to Perth to declare a $500 million victory for the West Australian lobster industry, said there would be no quid pro quo, and told the industry to “look at alternative markets as well. Don’t just have all of your eggs in the one basket.”

The end to the $20 billion hit to Australian trade with China which began in 2020 was announced on October 20 after Prime Minister Albanese met Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit. But Chinese government and media coverage seemed to play down any clear agreement.

This suggests the Chinese system is still waiting for some positive development on new Chinese investment into Australia before it is prepared to join the backslapping that has occurred each time the Albanese government unravels the trade impediments it inherited from the Morrison government.

TIMOR GAS

Timor Leste has again threatened to play the China card in its long-running tensions with the Australian government and Woodside Energy over the processing of gas inside the country rather than in Darwin.

In interviews during a visit to Australia, President Jose Ramos Horta said companies from China and a host of other countries - including South Korea and Kuwait - were interested in funding a pipeline to Timor if the Woodside consortium cannot reach an agreement.

He told Reuters that Timor had talked with a number of private and state-owned Chinese firms and that representatives of some of these had visited as part of a recent Chinese business delegation, including Sinopec.  “We look for partners. If Australia doesn't feel like doing it, that is totally understandable. Then either we talk with the Chinese or the Kuwaitis,” he told the National Press Club.

Development of the Greater Sunrise gas field, estimated to be worth $65 billion, is vital to the country as its sovereign wealth fund runs down but is being held up over the dispute about whether to pipe the gas to Darwin or to a new liquefied natural gas plant in East Timor. The federal government has appointed former Victorian premier Steve Bracks as a special envoy to help hammer out a deal.

SUN RISES FOR SUN CABLE

The power link to Singapore backed by entrepreneur Mike Cannon-Brookes has won a critical endorsement from the country’s energy regulator after earlier questions about whether Singapore favoured the project.

The Singapore Energy Market Authority (EMA) has now declared the Sun Cable project to be technically and commercially viable and in line with its decarbonisation strategy. It said in a statement: “The Conditional Approval will provide Sun Cable with the support to continue to develop the project to meet its proposed commercial operation date, which is expected to be after 2035.”

The Sun Cable project includes a 20 gigawatt solar farm in the Northern Territory, an 800 kilometre transmission line to Darwin, a high-voltage undersea cable for the 4300 kilometre link to Singapore, and converter sites in Darwin and Singapore. Cannon-Brookes’ private company acquired the $40 billion project after it fell into administration following a disagreement between him and former partner Andrew Forrest over whether it was viable, and the power should instead be used to make hydrogen in Australia.

There had been questions about whether Singapore preferred to buy power from other neighbouring countries as part of an ASEAN power grid and was concerned about Indonesia’s role in the Sun Cable project which would run through Indonesian waters.

The EMA said Singapore was aiming to import six gigawatts of low carbon power by 2035 and had unrealised arrangements with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia for 5.6GW to which it was adding 1.75GW from Sun Cable.

BETTING ON ASEAN

Austrade is claiming its best ever year in Southeast Asia with more than $1 billion in “commercial outcomes” since the beginning of 2024 as the Albanese government claims results from the regional economic strategy announced more than a year ago.

In a new publication Advancing Implementation about actions taken on the strategy, which was released at the ASEAN Summit in Laos, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has chosen to focus on the previously announced Deal Teams and the $2 billion Investment Financing Facility.

“Our targeted program of trade and investment missions are connecting exporters and investors with customers, and our new private sector Business Champions are lending their experience and influence. We are rolling up our sleeves and getting things done,” he says in an introduction to the publication.

He says the government has made it easier for Southeast Asians to do business in Australia through a new “Front Door” which provides a single point of entry for investors, as well as enhanced visa access for the region’s businesspeople.

The publication says more than 220 businesses have taken part in 10 business missions to seven countries since the Moore Report on economic engagement to 2040 was released. And it says a mission by institutional investors and fund managers to Singapore was the largest outbound Australian mission representing $2.5 trillion under management.

Austrade says promoting Southeast Asia on its Go Global Toolkit website has resulted in more than 19,000 new users of the website and 7700 subscribers to it Southeast Asia newsletter.

DIPLOMATICALLY SPEAKING

We can cooperate where we can, but we’ll disagree where we must. And what’s important is that friends are able to have direct discussions. It doesn’t imply agreement. It doesn’t imply compliance, and I’ll always represent Australia's national interest. That’s what I did today, it was a very constructive meeting.

  - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese after meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the East Asia Summit (October 10)

DATAWATCH

INDIA’S CHALLENGE

This chart from the Lowy Institute Power Index shows a mixed global influence for India as it has become the world’s most populous country.

ON THE HORIZON

Picture: ADB 

A FINANCE COP

Asian countries will be participating in the 29th United Nations climate change summit in November amid growing warnings this part of the world is most vulnerable to extreme weather but also ill-prepared to analyse the data.

The UN Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 29) gathering runs from November 11-22 on the most western boundary of Asia in Azerbaijan.

World Meteorological Organization said in a recent report that Asia remained the world’s most disaster-affected region in 2023 due to weather, climate and water-related hazards. Storms and floods have hit the hardest.

But a recent Asian Development Bank report said policy makers in Asia and the Pacific were struggling to collect and analyse the data they need to effectively respond to climate change. The report notes that national statistical offices are challenged not only by limited capacity and insufficient access to climate data, but also by a lack of uniform definitions and methodologies.

World leaders will attend a two-day gathering at the opening of the summit just days after the US presidential election which could see a re-elected Donald Trump moving to withdraw that country from the UN climate change negotiation system.

More than 30,000 attendees are expected to attend the Baku summit even though Azerbaijan is the latest petrostate with limited tolerance for dissent to host the annual talks. This meeting has been dubbed the “finance COP” because rich countries most responsible for global warming are supposed to be committing to substantially increasing their assistance to poorer countries for climate action.

Conference president and Azerbaijan ecology and natural resources minister Mukhtar Babayev has already pressed Asian countries saying they were not only at the frontlines of climate impacts but also uniquely positioned to be at the forefront of climate solutions.

The ADB is set to launch its US$12 billion Finance Facility for Climate in Asia (IF-CAP) at the summit with Australia reportedly joining six other countries as a sovereign backer. It plans to support about 150 projects over five years with loans of $20 to $300 million. The other backers are Denmark, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, the UK and the US.

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