Following President Lai's inaugural speech on May 20, 2024, Beijing launched its so-called ‘punishment’ war games by conducting military exercises around Taiwan the very next morning. Beijing's assertive stance towards Taiwan continued after India’s newly re-elected Prime Minister Modi thanked President Lai for congratulating him on his third consecutive electoral victory. China’s military and political actions raise concerns for regional security and stability. Against this backdrop, The 16th Asia Roundtable was convened with Prof. Ping-Kuei Chen, Department of Diplomacy, College of International Affairs & Director, Center for India Studies, National Chengchi University, Taiwan; Dr. Hsiao-Chen Lin, Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute for International Affairs & Strategic Studies, Tamkang University, Taiwan; Mr. Raghav Handa, HSBC India, Director, Strategic Business Development & Government Affairs with moderator Dr Rishi Gupta, Assistant Director, Asia Society Policy Institute, Delhi. The Roundtable explored how Delhi and Taipei might recalibrate their approach in managing the ‘China threat’ better while strengthening their own bilateral ties in the political, economic, and technological domains.

Here are a few key takeaways from the discussion –

1. Cross-strait relations are currently tense but stable. China has conducted military exercises and used tactics to express its dissatisfaction with Taiwan, but a direct invasion seems unlikely.

2. Experts caution that even small escalations in the Taiwan Strait could be riskier than those in the South China Sea, especially with potential U.S. involvement.

3. Taiwan's domestic politics could increase cross-strait tensions. The pro-independence DPP, despite winning the presidential election, lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan. This situation may give Beijing opportunities to influence Taiwan through its ties with the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), especially as Taiwan pushes for greater recognition of its distinct identity.

4. The India-Taiwan relationship has strengthened since 2014, particularly with India's role in the Indo-Pacific supply chain and Taiwan's focus on technology, including semiconductors. However, China is wary of these growing ties, especially as it tries to limit global access to semiconductors. This is a concern for Beijing, as Taiwan's cooperation with India directly impacts China's strategic goals.