By Asia Society Australia Director, Programs, James Scullin and Non-Resident Senior Policy Fellow, Dr. Bates Gill

Asia Society Australia recently convened the workshop on “Deciphering China: Staying Informed in an Era of Diminished Access.” The unique gathering of experienced China-watchers examined how academia, think tanks, business, and media can collaboratively enhance their understanding of China amid increasingly restricted access to information.

Our discussion addressed the challenges of diminishing transparency, alternative approaches to accessing data, and strategies to prepare the next generation of China analysts. The workshop’s diverse group of experts and practitioners put forward a wide range of concerns and sensible policy responses but reached solid agreement on the necessity of cross-sectoral cooperation to share experiences and effectively navigate the narrowing information landscape in today’s China.  

The Shrinking Space for China Analysis

Australia has a long and proud tradition of world-renowned China scholars and practitioners, yet access to reliable information has never been straightforward. Understanding China has always required effort and creativity to ascertain a clear picture of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) given the Party-state's control over information for both local Chinese and foreigners alike. The challenge today is not wholly new but has become increasingly complex due to legislative, regulatory, and political shifts restricting the flow of information. Recognising this historical perspective helps establish realistic benchmarks for China-related research and analysis.

Access to information on China has been eroded gradually through a series of legal and regulatory constraints. PRC legislative acts, such as the Foreign NGO Law and the National Intelligence Law, have created access barriers for researchers, businesses, and media professionals. The scrutiny of outsiders, such as foreign journalists, to peek behind the curtain of developments in China, once tolerated and sometimes valued by Beijing, has significantly diminished as authorities now exert greater control of foreign media and limit their presence inside the country. Things are no better on the domestic front, as many disillusioned Chinese journalists have transitioned their careers to PR roles, and those still reporting face increasing political pressure to toe the Party line, not to mention nationalistic online harassment if they stray too far from it.

Diminishing Access for Researchers

In academia, Western researchers often have to contend with safety concerns, as well as an increase in propaganda that pressures Chinese counterparts, warning them of foreign ‘spies. Researchers also struggle to translate key Chinese economic and policy documents at scale, limiting their ability to assess developments in China comprehensively. These challenges, coupled with a shrinking space for field research and in-country data gathering and interviews, have constrained meaningful discourse. 

University and think-tank researchers report an almost universal narrowing of access to information and interlocutors. The tightening of archive access further complicates research, and officials increasingly screen those who may be seeking what has become an increasingly expansive set of materials deemed “sensitive” or “secret”. Additionally, political fluctuations in Australia-China relations impact researcher access, with Chinese contacts at times retracting their engagement during periods of bilateral tension.   

Researchers also point to personal safety and data security concerns limiting their willingness to travel to China or their ability to conduct research once in the country.  Security precautions, such as using burner phones, have become essential, yet universities have been slow to adapt. Protecting contacts within China is a growing concern, with trust networks now playing a crucial role in gaining access to information. For younger researchers, dwindling opportunities to conduct research in China risks producing analysis that lacks context, particularly regarding life outside major cities. 

Diminishing Access for Businesses

Geopolitical risk is now, more than ever, a major consideration for businesses operating in China, but many companies—especially small and medium-sized enterprises—lack adequate preparedness. Greater China literacy is necessary to manage these risks, as inadequate understanding of the landscape can lead to excessive caution among Australian businesses or, even worse, very costly mistakes. Establishing strong networks remains crucial, particularly for those with bicultural competencies.  

While trade and investment data are available through open sources, effectively analysing and interpreting this data can be a painstaking task for many analysts looking to ascertain a more granular picture of China’s economy. Digital communication, especially through WeChat, has become more sensitive, necessitating reliance on official channels that can stifle productive exchanges through the presence of government note takers. Meanwhile, data security laws in China and uncertainty over what constitutes “sensitive” or “secret” information complicates and constrains the flow of information between foreign headquarters and China-based affiliates.

Loyalty to the state is ever more present and some businesses have observed their local partners’ display of overt symbols of nationalism, such as Chinese flags on vehicles and buildings. Investment hesitancy has also increased due to concerns about repatriating funds from China. 

Diminishing Access for Journalists

Foreign correspondents face an ongoing battle to remain in the country, often receiving only short-term visas or being replaced by journalists with limited China expertise. Indeed, the number of US foreign correspondents in China has crashed from 27 to 5 over the last seven years. Meanwhile, China’s official propaganda efforts of “telling China’s story well”, have seen the gap in foreign correspondents filled by China-friendly Western content makers and “influencers” invited on guided press tours and presented with state approved, pre-scripted op-eds readymade for overseas publication.  

The role of foreign media in examining issues unreported by Chinese outlets remains critical to informing publics and policymakers back home, yet reporting on China has become increasingly risky. Journalists now avoid naming sources to avoid endangering them, as Chinese citizens can face significant repercussions for speaking to foreign media. Surveillance has also intensified, making even casual conversations, such as those with taxi drivers, more guarded.  

The accumulation of censorship measures has slowed the pace and quality of information flow from China, limiting the scope of investigative reporting. While remote sleuthing or satellite data help shed light on important developments, such as military modernisation, labour camp expansion, the wealth accumulation of Chinese leaders, or the preferences of Chinese consumers, fact-checking and verification are increasingly difficult without on-the-ground access. 

Alternative Approaches to Access

Despite these challenges, innovative methodologies offer alternative ways to circumvent the challenges in learning more about modern day China: 

• Advanced research can now be conducted remotely using government procurement documents, satellite imagery, and other open-source intelligence. However, these tools must be supplemented with local insights to avoid misinterpretation.  

• Track-two dialogues, while diminished in scope, still provide valuable informal discussions.  

• Additionally, third-party locations outside China can be valuable observation points for PRC-related developments and also serve as more neutral venues for freer discussions with Chinese contacts. 

Challenges Within Australia 

Domestically, restrictive policies have hampered the ability to study China effectively. Security agencies have scrutinised researchers and students in ways that have been perceived as heavy-handed. The fear that time spent in China could hinder future public service careers discourages young scholars from making China-watching a long-term career option. Compliance with foreign interference regulations has also created burdensome administrative requirements at universities, such as mandatory disclosures for minor collaborations with Chinese colleagues. 

Media organisations also need to ensure their editorial teams have a stronger sense of China literacy beyond the bilateral relationship, and better understand the risks faced by journalists covering China, particularly those of Chinese Australian descent. Additionally, toxic public discourse around China has led some journalists and researchers abdicating from the national discussion on China due to online harassment and professional risks. 

Funding constraints in universities further limit opportunities for immersive study, including PhD scholarships and in-country visits. The Australian government has yet to develop a comprehensive China strategy akin to its Southeast Asia Economic Strategy, which could provide clearer guidance on how organisations can best engage with China considering the current challenges.  

Australia’s economic ties with China are largely driven by commodities, education, and tourism—sectors that require comparatively minimal in-country investment or market presence. As a result, Australian businesses have a relatively small footprint in China and often rely on second-hand sources for market intelligence and broader economic, political, and social insights. This challenge is further compounded as access to reliable information continues to narrow. 

Preparing the Next Generation of China Watchers 

Developing future China analysts requires better incentives and pathways. Programs like the New Colombo Plan have provided valuable formative experiences, yet China-specific career prospects remain difficult for a number of reasons. The political climate has also made China-related careers less attractive to young scholars. Fear of political scrutiny discourages students from studying in China, and the difficulty of obtaining security clearances for those with China ties creates additional barriers.  

Within Australian universities, a more balanced discourse is necessary to allow students to explore divergent views on China without the fear of being labelled as either overly sympathetic or overly hostile toward China. Additionally, there is a need for senior scholars to actively mentor younger researchers, passing down practical knowledge and strategies for accessing reliable information on China, whether in-country or otherwise. 

Conclusion 

The challenges of accessing information on China continue to rise, yet academia, business, and media each play a crucial role in using alternative strategies to decipher developments in the country today. Cross-sector collaboration is essential to navigate these constraints, combining traditional expertise with innovative methodologies.  

Australia should foster the next generation of China analysts by ensuring they have the skills, access, and career pathways to sustain their productive futures in contributing to Australian interests. While the space for understanding China has narrowed, the continued sharing of experiences by practitioners can help to support those seeking the tradecraft and best practice approaches to decipher the China of today.