Illustration by Rocco Fazzari.

INCUMBENTS RULE

If last year saw voters reject incumbent politicians across Asia from Sri Lanka to Japan, this month seems set to see well established incumbents hang on to power.

The first election in Singapore without the Lee family playing a big role and the latest election in the Philippines where the Marcos dynasty holds sway have been almost entirely overlooked in Australia amid our own federal election. The votes in Singapore (May 3) and the Philippines (May 12) are likely to validate the idea that while Southeast Asians have embraced voting, real power doesn’t change hands very much. (See NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH)

Nevertheless, since all politics is local, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cannot be too confident about the regional power of incumbency flowing on to him despite opinion poll support for his government rising during the campaign.

We’ve devoted ASIAN NATION this month to teasing out some of the Asian-related themes that have emerged in the Australian election campaign. There have been plenty of spot fires from Russian jets in Papua to a Vietnamese showdown in western Sydney to Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister saying he hoped Labor would win. However there has been a lack of new broad perspectives from the competing leaders on how Australia’s Asian geographic reality fits into the Trump era of geopolitical fragmentation. Nevertheless, the spot fires suggest the old conventional wisdom about foreign or (more specifically) Asian policy not really counting in Australian elections may be due for some revision.

Meanwhile, although the election debate might be unsatisfying for those seeking more regional engagement the latest results from the annual survey of Southeast Asian opinion makers does reveal a modest improvement in Australia’s stature. That’s quite good news in a world of limited alternatives to Trump’s America First approach.

Greg Earl
Briefing MONTHLY editor

NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH

ASEAN: Looking in

Source: State of Southeast Asia report/Briefing Monthly

Australia has received a modest boost in its perceived stature as a partner for Southeast Asia in the latest survey of opinion makers in the region by the Yusof Ishak/Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

The annual State of Southeast Asia Report provides a rich source of data on attitudes of opinion makers on a wide source of issues, this year led by a small shift back towards the US as more trusted than China just as Donald Trump was sworn in as US President.

But Briefing MONTHLY has been tracking the lower profile findings on attitudes to Australia for several years as a rare source of objective feedback on government policy initiatives to improve engagement with the region. Australia’s numbers are always small because it is competing with much larger regional interlocutors from China to the European Union in the various categories.

Nevertheless, Australia’s results have been at best mixed in recent years - especially on economic engagement - amid initiatives such as the special ASEAN summits in Australia is 2018 and 2024. This year Australia has had some modest boosts along with some other middle power players perhaps mainly because of dissatisfaction with the US and China as partners.

It has seen an increase in its stature as the region’s free trade leader (from 1.7% to 2.7%) and as the key strategic power (from 0.5% to 1.2%). Its ranking as the region’s dialogue partner of first choice has gone from 7th out of 11 to 5th. Singaporean and Malaysian respondents ranked it as their fourth choice. Australia has also received a slightly higher choice as the region’s rules-based order leader.

Australia’s highest ranking in this survey historically has been as a place to study underlining the role of education as a source of soft power.  But the education question has now been replaced by a combined live/work question where Australia is the first choice of 12.2% of respondents behind the US (14.8%) and Japan (17.6%). Australia’s rank as a holiday destination has remained strong over the years and is now ranked third first choice at 7.7% after Japan (33%) and Europe (10.2%).

• While discussion about Australia joining ASEAN has receded, at Nikkei Asia Niaz Asadullah and Doris Liew say Bangladesh should now be looking at ASEAN membership under its new government.

THE OTHER ELECTIONS

Workers Party leader Pritam Singh on the campaign trail.   Picture: Facebook

Singapore: The general election on May 3 will be a test for relatively new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in the country’s first poll where the Lee family, which has provided two prime ministers, will not play a prominent role.

While the People’s Action Party, which has run Singapore for six decades, is expected to win the election, its long dominance makes its performance measure captive to maintaining its vote share. At the last 2020 poll that share dropped sharply to 61.2 per cent from 69.9 per cent in 2015.

The government has slashed its economic growth outlook after a negative first quarter underlining how cost of living issues are the key issues being debated during the election campaign. But Singapore’s vulnerability as an open trade nation to Donald Trump’s tariff upheaval means voters may have become more focused on national security.

The oldest opposition group - the Workers Party - has only ten seats in the 97 seat Parliament, but its leader has been under assault by the PAP which means other opposition groups might pick up ground.

• Michael Barr at Inside Story says Lawrence Wong’s resort to populism and financial giveaways hints at nervousness he will not maintain the vote share.

Philippines: The general election on May 12 is a mid-term style event where the presidency is not up for grabs, but voters will choose all 317 House of Representatives seats; 12 out of 24 Senate seats; and most provincial and local seats.

This will make the election a de facto battle over the political landscape for the next presidential election in 2028 when incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos junior cannot stand.

At face value that means a showdown between Marcos family supporters who tend to dominate the northern Philippines and forces aligned with former President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter vice-president Sara Duterte, who has fallen out with Marcos after allying with him at the last election.

The Marcos family is reportedly trying to pave the way for House of Representatives speaker and Marcos cousin Martin Romualdez to run as the next president. While the Duterte’s have strong support in the southern Philippines, other candidates will be testing the waters for an alternate future presidential candidate to the Marcos and Duterte families.

The Philippines has a fluid and fissiparous party system with both single seat and party list candidates.  Marcos formed a new alliance of around five parties last year in an attempt to dominate the landscape for this election.

• At The Straits Times, Mara Cepeda says about 200 families are tightening their grip on Philippines elections despite reforms designed to increase participation.

TRUMPED: how Asia is reacting

China: No country is more affected by the tariff changes than China. But it has persistently rejected statements by the Trump Administration the formal negotiations on a compromise are under way. President Xi Jinping used a re-arranged tour of Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia to sign a series of agreements and position himself as a supporter of the global trade system.

Negotiations: Several countries used the International Monetary Fund annual meeting to begin tariff negotiations. But Japan pushed back against being pushed into an anti-Chinese economic bloc. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said India might be one of the first countries to cut a deal. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong says the country faces a “dark storm” from the tariffs. See DATAWATCH

Asean exposure: Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong says the country faces a “dark storm” from the tariffs. A senior Japanese official said he was worried the tariffs would drive Southeast Asia away from the US. Malaysia has delayed a new consumption tax due to tariff uncertainty.

Asian students: The Trump administration has restored the immigration status of hundreds of foreign students, many from Asia, after a group of Chinese students took court action to prevent their deportation. Up to 5000 such students out of more than one million have reportedly faced immigration questions prompting the legal action and the Administration is now developing a more coherent policy.

Nuclear risks: South Korean public opinion has shifted sharply towards favouring nuclear armament over basing US soldiers amid fears of both isolationist Trump Administration comments and its possible engagement with North Korea. Notably Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul declared that it was now “not off the table” for his country to need to develop its own nuclear weapons program.

ASIAN NATION

POLLING DAZE

Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton at Lunar New Year in Melbourne before the election.  Picture: Nine Newspapers

LAUNCH DAY: Australia’s role in Asia and its Asia diaspora were a striking absence from the formal campaign launch speeches apart from an oblique reference from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

He said that under his government: “Australia has resumed our place as a leader in our region, a neighbour the Pacific can count on, and a nation engaged in the world.” But the prime minister then quickly swung back to more defensive national security rhetoric declaring: “Under Labor, Australia decides the investments we make in our defence, our security and our international relationships - in our national interest.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton stuck entirely to a more inward-looking national security approach around economic disruption and dangers from authoritarian regimes. “I know Australians are troubled by events at home and abroad,” he said. “We must strengthen our defence force – so it has the firepower to deter any adversary that would threaten us … we must become a more resilient, self-reliant, resourceful, and robust country."

Analysis: The competing leaders have been more focused on fending off foreign threats epitomised by the Trump Administration than charting new paths into the region.

ASIAN STUDENTS: A year after the Albanese government controversially capped international student numbers and increased fees as part of a tighter immigration policy, Peter Dutton has committed to an even tighter approach on the basis the students (mostly from Asia) are still putting pressure on housing markets.

The Coalition is flagging an enrolment cap of about 25 per cent for international students compared with the 50 per cent level at some universities now.  It will also triple the student application fee further for Group of Eight universities and in addition review the number of graduate students that can stay in Australia. The government announced its own additional fee increase this week.

Analysis: Foreign student numbers will fall and fees will rise under both sides of politics pressuring university finances and undermining the soft power dividend from educating aspirational young Asians in Australia.

DARWIN PORT: In an early example of the tit-for-tat policy quality of this election, Labor announced a review of Chinese ownership of Darwin port seemingly to gazump a planned Opposition announcement.

The port was sold to China’s Landbridge Group in 2015 under Coalition federal and territory governments. A 2023 review under the Albanese government accepted the position.

The Coalition says it will buy the port back within six months of winning office, but Anthony Albanese says he hopes a superannuation fund will buy the port before he needs to approve a future federal government purchase.

Analysis: Neither side wants to accept responsibility for an ill-considered decision that marks the zenith of Chinese commercial influence in Australia despite each having some fingerprints on it.

MUSLIM VOTERS: Australia’s Muslim population has more diverse origins – from Europe to Asia - than any other country in the world and so the idea of a coherent Muslim community challenge to mostly safe Labor seats in Sydney and Melbourne due to the Gaza conflict was complex.

The Muslim challenge from a community of about 650,000 voters has ebbed and flowed during the campaign and seems likely to be more impactful in terms of preference flows in some close contests than in terms of independent Muslim candidates winning. Media reporting suggests Muslim background voters are motivated by a wider range of issues than Gaza.

For example, the Muslim Votes Matter group has warned it could give preferences to Greens rather Labor in some seats despite having issues with the Greens on religious freedom in schools. The potentially influential Muslim advocacy group is planning to tell voters to preference the Greens above Labor on how-to-vote cards in  key seats in Melbourne, despite objecting to the minor party’s position on religious freedom in schools.

On the other hand, in two Sydney seats held by ministers, Muslim Votes-backed candidates are expected to preference Labor. In two other seats, independent candidates are reportedly not backed by the Muslim Votes group.

Seats where Muslim activists expect to have an impact are: Bruce, Wills and Calwell (in Victoria), Sturt (South Australia), Cowan (Western Australia), Moreton (Queensland), Banks, Werriwa, Blaxland, and Watson (NSW).

Analysis: Australia’s growing Muslim community is quite divided in terms of origins and religious activism which may save the Labor government from a significant backlash over the Gaza conflict.

DIASPORA DIVIDE:

Vietnamese showdown … Dai Le (left) and Tu Le     Picture: Sydney Morning Herald

Anthony Albanese has touted a 34-year-old Vietnamese legal aid lawyer as a future Cabinet minister underlining the significance of the first head-to-contest between Vietnamese Australians for a federal parliamentary seat.

The western Sydney seat of Fowler, which has the largest ethnic Vietnamese population of federal electorates, was won by independent ex-liberal Party member Dai Le in 2022 after Labor tried to parachute former NSW Premier and then Labor Senator Kristina Keneally in.

The then alternative (but dumped) Labor candidate Tu Le has been reinstated and talked up as a longtime resident of the seat in contrast to Dai Le, although both are children of refugees. But Dai Le has deep community roots as a local councillor and association with a high-profile local mayor and has stood apart from the “Teal” independents who also came into Federal Parliament in 2022.

Analysis: Genuine independents are increasingly hard to remove from federal seats once they breakthrough the major parties. Dai Le has an unusual mix of a media background, local government experience, Liberal Party origins, and diverse ethnic connections in her favour in this unusual diaspora contest.

CHINESE SEATS: The China factor has been a persistent theme through the campaign from Chinese ambassador Xiao Qian ambassador appealing to Australia to “join hands” with China on trade (see DIPLOMATICALLY SPEAKING) to a slightly awkward leaders’ debate moment where Albanese said he trusted Xin Jinping while Dutton said he had never met him.

While the leaders have both appeared wary of allowing China relations issues to enter the campaign they have been forced to balance the rising significance of Chinese background voters with growing global tensions.

As the Australia China Relations Institute says in a timely analysis of the competing approaches: “Australia’s PRC policy is no longer simply about the PRC – it is a prism through which broader questions of sovereignty, identity and values are being contested.”

Behind the foreign policy debate is the electoral reality of the last election which saw the swing against the Coalition government in the top 15 seats with Chinese-Australian voters running almost twice as high as the national average.

The one opinion poll on this issue this time by Chinese language media outlet Sydney Today offered a complex outlook with 64 per cent of respondents favouring Labor but 20 per cent saying they would change their vote from 2022. And respondents were evenly divided on whether they would support a candidate on the basis of Chinese appearance.

Analysis: The results in seats with Chinese-Australian populations may well have an ongoing influence on how much foreign policy positions in future will take into account of the 1.4 million Australians from this community.

INDONESIA: Peter Dutton struck an ambivalent note in his Lowy Institute pre-election foreign policy speech when he said the Indonesia relationship was “sacrosanct”, but he would nevertheless visit the US first as prime minister when all recent prime ministers have made their first bilateral trip to Indonesia.

But this relationship briefly became a more combustible election issue when a defence publication reported that Russia had sought Indonesian permission to base aircraft at Biak, off Papua. This appeared to catch Albanese government ministers by surprise allowing Dutton to question the depth of their relationship with the Prabowo Subianto government.

But an Indonesian denial any such request would be accepted (but not that it had been made) left government ministers claiming Dutton was prepared to play politics with an important diplomatic relationship.

Analysis: The Indonesia relationship is now so embedded in national political life that both sides see the need to claim to be better stewards.

GASLIGHTING: Australia’s relationship with its closest Asian partner in Japan has come under pressure during the Albanese government due to Japanese unhappiness with various Labor policies which both restrict new gas fields, increase costs, and give the government more potential control over domestic use of gas. Japan’s last ambassador left his post early amid reported tensions.

Now the boot is on the other foot with Japanese energy experts even more alarmed at Peter Dutton’s promised formal domestic gas reservation policy which Japanese gas buyers fear will restrict their ability to on-sell Australian gas at higher sport prices.

Analysis: Japanese officials often seem more comfortable with Coalition governments in Australia dating back to the Menzies era 1957 Commerce Agreement buttressed by both security and economic advances in the Shinzo Abe/Tony Abbott period.  But Dutton will discover energy security trumps diplomatic loyalty in Tokyo. See JAPANESE INVESTMENT below.

DEFENCE: Both sides have sought to talk tough on defence and wrap themselves in promises that defence spending will eventually reach three per cent of GDP while not specifying how that will be funded beyond the four-year Budget estimates. There have been no attempts to sketch out more regional defence cooperation. Dutton has taken a more offensive stand than Albanese by identifying China as more of a threat. But Albanese has favoured a more defensive approach by emphasising the Future Made in Australia policy as making the country more defence ready.

Analysis: Neither side is prepared to acknowledge the Budget costs of higher defence spending.

PRE-POLLING: The only opinion poll focussed on Asian relations during the campaign has given Albanese a much higher approval rating for managing the China relationship than Dutton.

The Lowy Poll found Australians are almost evenly split on whether  Dutton (35 per cent) or Anthony Albanese (34 per cent)  would be better as prime minister at managing Australia’s relationship with the US and Trump. By contrast, Albanese (45 per cent) had a 20-point lead over Dutton (25 per cent) in managing the relationship with China and Xi Jinping.

Analysis: The Albanese government’s gradualist approach to stabilising relations with China appears to be paying electoral dividends at a time when Chinese-Australians are significant swinging voters in some seats.

DEALS AND DOLLARS

JAPANESE INVESTMENT

Real estate has emerged as the busiest sector for Japanese deal making in Australia by number, in yet another example of the diversifying business links between the countries.

There were 72 merger and acquisition transactions in 2024 made up of 62 acquisitions and 10 divestments in the busiest year since law firm Herbert Smith Freehills has been collating the activity in 2017.

As Japanese companies make significant new investments in commercial real estate and residential apartment and housing markets, the report argues that Japanese capital and construction expertise has the potential to alleviate the housing crisis.

The report argues that the consecutive increase in Japanese investment activity in Australia in the three years since the pandemic underlines how Japanese companies have enormous confidence in Australia and their role in it. It notes that Japan is the only foreign investor in Australia to have recorded increased direct investment in the past eleven years, although it is still only the third largest cumulative investor after the US and the United Kingdom.

These reports have long highlighted the diversification of this investment away from the tradition focus on mining and the latest one points to further diversification in areas like aviation fuel, transport and logistics, data centres, pension and share administration services platforms, food technology, artificial intelligence, and enterprise information technology services.

For example, after real estate the innovation, technology and start-ups sector generated the most deals. However, as Japanese investors have returned to criticising Australian energy policy during the election campaign, the report points out that both gas and coal are attracting renewed interest from Japanese investors.

ASIA’S GROWTH CHALLENGE

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Asia’s economic growth outlook in line with its global downgrade and in the sharpest downward revision since the pandemic.

It says the region will grow by 3.9 per cent this year compared with 4.6 per cent last year and its 4.4 per cent forecast for this year made in October last year. It is expecting little improvement next year at four per cent.

It warns: “Asia accounted for nearly 60 per cent of global growth in 2024. However, the region’s successful growth model, based on trade liberalisation and integration into value chains, faces mounting challenges.”

The biggest downgrades of more than one percentage point since October in diminishing order hit Cambodia (1.8 per cent), Hong Kong (1.5 per cent), South Korea and Thailand (1.2 per cent), and Laos and Mongolia (one per cent).

Asia and Pacific Department director Krishna Srinivasan says Asian countries are particularly vulnerable to the Trump trade policy uncertainty because they are very oriented towards trade; they rebounded from the pandemic faster than other countries due to trade; and they have been increasing their participation in global supply chains particularly towards the US.

“The combination of greater exposure to the U.S. market and significantly high global policy uncertainty presents a vulnerability for the region,” he told a media briefing.

The IMF argues that Asian countries should in response be considering increased intra-regional trade underpinned by measures to boost domestic consumer demand, something that China needs to lead on. Srinivasan argues that South Asia offer the most scope for increased intra-regional trade followed by Southeast Asia.

DIPLOMATICALLY SPEAKING

China stands ready to join hands with Australia and the international community to jointly respond to the changes of the world.
   - Chinese ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian (April 10)\

We’re not about to make common cause with China. That’s not what’s going to happen here. … I don’t think we will be holding China’s hand.
   - Defence minister Richard Marles

We will speak for ourselves. Australia’s position is that freer and fair trade is a good thing.
   - Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

We are committed to navigating our differences wisely while always putting our national interest first.
   - Trade minister Don Farrell

Australia should have a very strong trading relationship with China. It’s in our mutual interest. I’ve always been very strongly supportive of enhancing and advancing that trading relationship.
   - Opposition leader Peter Dutton

DATAWATCH

THE HITLIST

Southeast Asia is the hardest hit region in the world from the Trump Administration reciprocal tariff regime, which has been suspended for 90 days. This IMF chart puts the various tariffs in context.

ON THE HORIZON

Anwar Ibrahim meeting Xi Jinping in Malaysia this month. Picture: Anwar Ibrahim Facebook

A CHANGING GLOBAL SOUTH

April has seen the quiet passing of the 70th anniversary of an historic event in modern Asia’s evolution – the 1955 meeting of post-colonial Asian and African countries in Bandung, Indonesia, which led to the formation of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

That determinably non-aligned Indonesia made nothing of the anniversary says something about President Prabowo Subianto’s personalised approach towards diplomacy and the way the economic development trajectories of Asia and Africa have diverged since 1955.

But in May Malaysia is attempting to create a new leg to the NAM’s contemporary manifestation – the so-called Global South of developing nations. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the current Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chair, is convening a meeting of Southeast Asian leaders with representatives of China and the wealthy Middle East countries.

The meeting will be held alongside the bi-annual gathering of leaders from ASEAN on May 26-27 just as Anwar tries to coordinate the Southeast Asian response to the Trump Administration’s tariff coercion policies.

The ASEAN Summit will include the traditional liaison with longstanding dialogue partners including the US and Australia.  But the new gathering will bring together the two key new foreign investors and aid donors in Southeast Asia after the US and Japan just as regional businesses are looking for new markets and investors in response to the Trump changes. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have all sought or secured membership of the key Global South institution the eponymously named BRICS (for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), as the rise of Donald Trump has fostered tensions within the key western or industrialised global institutions like the Group of Seven.

Ironically, the gathering of ASEAN, the GCC, and China will only underline how the Global South is more of a movement than a geographical descriptor. Indonesia will be the only participant that is actually mostly south of the Equator.

Perhaps paying heed to Trump Administration dissatisfaction with a more coordinated developing world, Anwar has reassuringly said: “Strengthening ties with China, the Gulf Cooperation Council, BRICS and other emerging economies is not about choosing sides. Rather, it is about ensuring Asean’s strategic relevance in a multipolar world.”

But as the NAM has largely been forgotten as an institution since the 1960s, how the now more economically dynamic Asian countries approach the idea of Global South cooperation will be central to any viable modern alternative.

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