New Report | The Limits of Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Japan-ROK-China Relations After the Fukushima Wastewater Release

March 7, 2024 — Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) just published a paper entitled The Limits of Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Japan-ROK-China Relations After the Fukushima Wastewater Release, authored by Daria Kurushina, Schwarzman Fellow at ASPI.

“More than a decade after the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that hit northeastern Japan on March 11, 2011, causing the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the aftermath of the ‘triple disaster’ continues to shape perceptions of Japan among its neighbors,” writes Kurushina. 

Her report explores the issues that have emerged between Japan, the Republic of Korea, and China as a result of the Japanese government’s April 2021 announcement of its plan to release treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima plant, and its subsequent follow through in August 2023. Kurushina explains the “regional reaction to Japan’s decision, why this reaction matters, and how the trilateral relationship might evolve alongside the wastewater issue.”

The paper notes that most impactful opposition to Japan’s decision to release treated wastewater has come from China: “Following the wastewater release, China leveraged every opportunity to project resentment toward Japan in an attempt to forestall a closer partnership between Tokyo and Seoul.” 

China succeeded in fueling public anger about the wastewater release among South Koreans. According to the report, around 80 percent of Korean respondents were against Japan’s decision to release the wastewater; however, at September 2023’s ASEAN+3 Summit, South Korea’s delegation “expressed satisfaction with Japan’s adherence to international safety regulations.”

Public disapproval of ROK President Yoon Suk Yeol’s handling of the Fukushima wastewater situation has weakened his party, presenting his opposition with a chance to dominate the upcoming legislative elections in April 2024. “That outcome would play directly into China’s hands, overshadowing the U.S. diplomatic milestone [the 2023 Camp David Summit] and raising questions about South Korea’s commitment to play a supporting role in Taiwan contingency,” writes Kurushina.

Still, China, Japan, and the ROK have committed to resuming trilateral meetings after a four-year hiatus. 

“A tangled knot of historical mistrust, geopolitical speculation, and economic controversy is at the crux of Northeast Asian trilateralism. Recognizing the need to come to the table, the three countries aim to manage their differences while building greater cooperation amid international security threats,” notes the report. “If the Chinese government can scale back public resentment over Japanese impunity – or at least refrain from fueling it further – prior to the dialogue, that would build considerable goodwill for productive dialogue and continued cooperation in the year ahead.”

Read the full report here. To request an interview with Kurushina, please reach out to [email protected].