Keyword: Kim Jong Il

On the surface, North Korea is calmly coping with the sudden death of its Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. His youngest son and heir, Kim Jong Un, seems to be in charge, smoothly preparing a state funeral for the 28th. Pyongyang media already call him “The Great Successor.”

Kim Jong Il's reported death on December 17 is the biggest shock to the country's regime since the passing of his father in 1994. Forecasting what will happen to an authoritarian regime after a leadership succession is inherently rather speculative, and nowhere is this more true than in North Korea. However, we can venture a few observations, and in very broad terms estimate the probability of various types of scenarios.

The King is dead! Long live the King! The old European cry when a monarch died and a new one took over was meant to prevent any argument over succession and make sure the throne was never empty. And this could just as well apply to North Korea today. Kim Jong Il had already a year before he died anointed his successor, his youngest son Kim Jong Un.

The news out of North Korea that leader Kim Jong Il has died, while surprising, is not completely unexpected. Faced with serious health concerns over the last few years, the North Korean leader began to put in place a plan for his son to take over the reins of power.