Sections +

An Asia Society Policy Institute Report
Produced in Collaboration with Rhodium Group

In November 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders announced a comprehensive program of economic reform, backed up by governance changes. The degree of boldness indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China’s development model is obsolete and urgently in need of replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end — a blind alley — is to deepen reform at home and opening to the world.

Despite this clarion call, observers have found several reasons to wonder what shape the reforms will take and whether the reform program will set China’s economy on a new path to sustained growth and bolster its trade and investment relationships.

Avoiding the Blind Alley: China’s Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications offers new insights on the changing profile and prospects of what will soon be the world’s largest economy. Written by Daniel H. Rosen, the report clarifies the ambitions of China’s economic reform program, assesses the progress China has made in implementing reforms, and forecasts the economic impacts the program will have on China and the world.

Executive Summary

Go to online English version

Download print-friendly English version (PDF, 811 KB) 

Download print-friendly Chinese version (PDF, 1.2 MB)

Full Report

Download print-friendly English version (PDF, 2.8 MB)

Order a printed copy (Free for Asia Society members; $10 for nonmembers)


Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Growth As We Knew It
Chapter 2: The Third Plenum Reform Program
     Redefining Government: A New Mission
     Center-Local Fiscal Reform
     Competition Policy Reform
     Financial System Reform
     Foreign Trade and Investment Reform
     State-owned Enterprise Reform
     Land Policy Rationalization
     Labor and Shared Welfare
     Environmental Policy Reform
     Innovation Policy Reform
Chapter 3: The Impact of China's Reforms Abroad
Chapter 4: Conclusions and Recommendations
About the Author | Acknowledgements