U.S. Rattles Sabre, but Is North Korea Listening
“The U.S. Secretary of Defense arrived in Seoul on Monday for high-level talks with South Korean officials. The two governments announced a series of joint U.S.-South Korean naval exercises to take place over the next few months, intended to send a ‘clear message to North Korea that its aggressive behavior must stop.’ It is not clear, however, that North Korea is listening. So far Pyongyang has refused to accept the findings by an international committee that North Korea was responsible for the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan earlier this year, killing 46 sailors. It is unlikely that a show of strength by the U.S. military will cause the North Koreans to back down, much less apologize for the incident, something North Korea has never done in the past. On the other hand, such moves contribute to the escalation of tensions in the region and have been criticized as provocative by China, which has urged restraint on all sides. At the present time North Korea is preoccupied with internal issues and is not inclined to be responsive to external pressure or intimidation,” says Asia Society Associate Fellow Charles Armstrong.
“Once the question of leadership transition in Pyongyang is more firmly settled, North Korea may be willing to return to negotiations with the U.S., South Korea, and other regional players on reducing military confrontation. Meanwhile, tensions on and around the Korean peninsula are becoming increasingly dangerous.”
Charles is Director of the Center for Korean Research at Columbia University. To arrange an interview, contact the Asia Society communications department at 212-327-9271 or [email protected].