Nuclear North Korea: An Assessment
Tuesday, March 8, 2016 – H.E. Han Sung-Joo, Former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Korea and Asia Society’s Global Council member was in Texas on Tuesday, March 8, for a special discussion on Nuclear North Korea. The event was a collaboration between the Asia Society and the University of Houston Center for International and Comparative Studies with the goal of exploring the questions that surround an armed North Korea. Despite huge changes in Asia over the last 10 years, one element that has remained constant is the threat of a nuclear DPRK; recent events in 2016, a 4th nuclear test on January 6 and the ballistic missile launching on February 7, continue to undermine peace and security in the region. Minister Han Sung-Joo, chairman of the International Policy Studies Institute of Korea and professor emeritus at Korea University gave an insider’s perspective into these issues.
Professor Han believed that in conducting the recent nuclear bomb test, North Korea was asserting that it can defend itself from a U.S. threat while sending a message to China that it would not buckle under pressure from Beijing. He believes that Kim Jong-Un probably had other objectives related to domestic politics. The test, coming only two days before his birthday celebration, was intended to demonstrate his bravado and achievement to the population, who still have much reservation about his leadership qualities. While the international community has almost uniformly condemned North Korea for its actions, countries in Northeast Asia are still divided about how to respond.
Beijing is reluctant to impose strongest possible sanctions for fear that it would cause the collapse of the regime in Pyongyang or at a minimum, deprive China of whatever influence it has over North Korea. Russia has also been ambivalent about harsher sanctions, wanting to maintain reasonably good relations with North Korea and thereby retain its leverage to enlarge moving room in its relations vis-a-vis North Korea. Such a situation has left the remaining trio of Six Party Talks members--the United States, South Korea and Japan--to seek separate measures responding to the North Korean nuclear challenge.
In 2012, after nearly 10 years of on-again-and-off again negotiations, North Korea became a self-declared nuclear weapons state. Experts now believe that North Korea will possess anywhere between 50 to 100 nuclear weapons by the year 2020. Combined with its ballistic missile capability, Professor Han fears that North Korea’s nuclear weapons will pose a threat not only to its neighbors but also to the United States. To address the North Korean threat, the strategies of the powers seem to center around the use of military force, South Korea possessing nuclear weapons, the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to Korea, comprehensive sanctions, concluding a “U.S.-North Korea Peace Agreement”, and regime change in North Korea. Professor Han explained how none of these measures have shown to be working in reducing, much less stopping North Korean nuclear activities. Past lessons demonstrate that policies need to be more pragmatic, focusing on an effective mix of both carrot and stick.
Professor Han concluded his analysis by stating that one overall strategy should incorporate discussions for achieving peaceful Korean unification. A sure way to achieve denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula, including North Korea, is reunification under the South Korean auspices. Although this is a long-term prospect, the ultimate resolution of the North Korean nuclear problem is one good reason why all the neighboring countries of Korea and the United States should welcome Korean unification and support its realization.