Bad Decisions, Bad Consequences: The Korean Issue in the New Century
July 15, 2014 - Korea analyst and author Bob Carlin was guest speaker at the Asia Society’s July monthly luncheon to discuss the re-release of what many consider the foremost book on modern Korea, Don Oberdorfer’s The Two Koreas. Carlin wrote the updated forward, bringing this arresting publication, loved by university students, business leaders and public alike, to a new generation of readers. Carlin discussed the changes on the Korean Peninsula since the publication’s initial release, the publication’s continued relevance, and the challenges he had to overcome in updating the book.
Carlin started by saying that many people always ask the question of where we are going with North Korea when really we should be asking ourselves how did we get into this situation in the first place. To answer this question Carlin had to take apart the first edition of the book down to its blueprint to get a deep understanding of what Don Oberdorfer was portraying through his work. One of the biggest challenges that Carlin faced was dealing with the personal pronoun that Oberdorfer often used in his writing; rather than using “I” to show that he was central to the book, Oberdorfer would use it as a way into the story. Another logistical challenge Carlin faced was dealing with the length of the revised book after being told by the publisher that it was to be no more than 10% longer than the original. From the year 2001 there were many new developments related to North Korea and Carlin also had a lot of personal experience that he wanted to include in the book; by adding only 40 new pages this would become an impossible task. The way around this was to shrink the text and by that way he was able to add more than 100 new pages to the book.
Carlin explained how his book picks up from where Oberdorfer left off in December 2000 when US – DPRK relations were looking up. Kim Jong Il’s second in command had been to Washington for talks and Madeline Albright had been to Pyongyang to set about a framework for cooperation. Fast forward 3 months and following the election of the Bush administration, relations had deteriorated so fast that the whole framework had been totally destroyed. Carlin talked about how the Bush administration made 3 big mistakes that pushed back the previous progress that had been made. The first was destroying the previous agreement that had been put in place, the second was not following up on missile talks, and the final mistake was ignoring the October 2000 joint communiqué. All of this created a huge divide and hostility between the two countries.
Carlin then proceeded to talk about missed opportunities for progress in 2009 during the Obama and Lee Myung Bak administrations. The first was in August when Bill Clinton went to rescue 2 American journalists who had been held in DPRK for trespassing. Kim Jong Il had wanted to engage Clinton to get US-DPRK relations back on track but Clinton had been ordered by the administration to have no communication at all other than bringing the girls home. In October of the same year following Kim Dae Jung’s death, 2 DPRK officials came to Seoul with a message to propose secret talks in Singapore with Lee Myung Bak. South Korea agreed on this but had a change of heart months later which angered the North. These were the last 2 windows of opportunity to engage in positive dialogue.
In his conclusion, Carlin explains how the problem we have today is misconception and the belief that everything has failed when in reality, it has failed because we have pushed it or let it fail. He believes that if you engage the DPRK on a single issue then this can be moved to other issues and then maybe there will be a place to restart the talks. If there is to be no talks then the DPRK economy, missile programs and nuclear power will only get stronger and put the world into an ever more dangerous and volatile situation.