Central Asia: A Political History from the 19th Century to Present

The Present Era
The independence of 1991 is really an unwanted independence, because of the Russian financial and security support. These republics were originally designed to be ruled and were not designed as independent countries.

There are a few trends to be discussed in the post-Cold War era. The first is the international dimension. Immediately after the fall of the Soviet system in the early 1990s, Turkey and Iran were believed to be the major players in this region. The logic was that the population in these Central Asian republics was Muslim. This argument is weak since it assumes these Central Asians have no identity. But Turkey and Iran also do not have the resources to exert that kind of influence in the region. Instead, the rulers of these republics portray themselves as whatever the external powers want them to be in order to obtain support.

The other aspect is the realization of oil deposit in the region, particularly around the Caspian Sea. The notion of pipeline politics as the new Great Game, however, is premature. First, the Caspian oil price has to be relatively high in order to be economically viable. Second, the regional infrastructure is too poor to support the industry. For example, Turkmenistan has a large deposit of natural gas, but the Turkmen cannot get it out to obtain hard currency. There is also a 200-mile pipeline from the region to Iran, but it is of low capacity.

Domestically, there are five authoritarian dictators ruling these republics. Three of them (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) are Soviet era officials who have retained the presidencies. All three are nominally democratic, but freedom has certainly been curtailed. Kyrghyzstan at first seemed to be an exception, but its president eventually did not want to relinquish power. The rating of Turkmenistan in a number of socio-economic indicators is very poor. Its population has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the entire world.

Another distinguishing event of the region is the complete breakdown in Tajikistan into virtual anarchy. It disintegrated mainly because 50% of its budget was subsidized by Moscow. It was instantaneously curtailed when it became independent. It is not quite true that it was the Islamic fundamentalists trying to overthrow the Tajik government. The civil war pitted an opposition coalition of ethnic Pamiris, Tajik nationalists, and Islamists against the ruling Communist government that was backed by Russia and Uzbekistan.

Another aspect of the region is the Islamic fundamentalist in the Ferghana Valley. This region has a lot unemployed young men, and it has received a lot external influence like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This area has become a base of Islamic agitation. The current Central Asian regimes actually encourage the growth of Islamic fundamentalism by treating the local population badly. The regimes also use Islamic fundamentalism as an excuse to arrest and imprison their political enemies in order to consolidate their rule in the region.

After 9/11, external powers, like the US, try to exert influences in Central Asia. Russia is not at all pleased with this development since this area is former Soviet territory. However, Russia is tolerating it for two reasons. First, this will divert the attention from Chechnya; and second, Russia has become a good ally as an oil producer.

The presence of foreign powers in the region, such US military troops, will have social ramifications for this region. It is likely that this development will create tension.

Another potential social and political problem is illegal drug smuggling, such as opium in southern Kyrghyzstan. Warlords would raise money to finance their activities through drug trade.

It does not seem that foreign aids and assistance have done a lot to the region. The idea of foreign aids is to promote democracy and free market. However, the Central Asian leaders, who do not have serious intention to change, simply see us as a source of resources. If we continue to support them unconditionally, we might be sowing the seeds for future problems. Furthermore, if these dictators continue doing what they are doing and if we get associated with them, the domestic local oppositions might use anti-Americanism as what Khomeni did to the shah in Iran.

In this light, the scenario in Central Asia, in some aspects, fits nicely with colonial history in general.