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FORECAST ASIA: Stephen Joske on China’s "new normal" economic growth and the implications for the Australian and global economy

by Fiona Wallace-Smith
16 June 2015

On 3 June 2015, Mr Stephen Joske, Senior Manager (Asia), AustralianSuper and one of Australia’s leading experts on Chinese economy, spoke to the Asia Society Australia members at an exclusive boardroom briefing as part of Asia Society’s ‘Forecast Asia’ series. He spoke about China’s “new normal” economic growth and the implications for the Australian and global economy.

Joske suggested that China was in the unusual situation of having a credit bubble, but no housing bubble. While growth has been slowing mildly, the housing market appears to have stabilised at normal levels compared to the 2008 and 2011 housing cycles. The labour market is tight, with strong real wage growth.

China has already made a rapid transition to growth led by consumption and the service sector. Looking ahead the challenge is to continue deflating the credit bubble while maintaining a mild deceleration in economic growth. A likely correction in the stock market will not derail growth but raises questions about the pace of financial reform.

The event was co-hosted by Gerard Dalbosco, Managing Partner, EY and Stephen Spargo AM, Partner, Allens and board member of the Asia Society Australia. The event was generously sponsored by EY and held in Melbourne.

Forecast Asia series – presented across the Asia Society’s global network – offers assessments and interpretations of trends and developments in Asia by leading economists, business, political and social thinkers and visionaries.